By YongHan Park
A Senior Researcher of Korea Institute for Defense Analyses(KIDA)

North Korea has been threatening the security order in Northeast Asia with its illegal nuclear weapons development for decades. It also supplied weapons to Russia, which invaded Ukraine, and recently began directly intervening in the war by sending special forces. These deviations by North Korea not only worsen the threat in Europe, but can also lead to increased tension in Northeast Asia. There are various justifications and needs for Northeast Asia and the international community that hopes to maintain peace to stop North Koreas troop deployment and the illegal solidarity between North Korea and Russia.

In early October, it was discovered that North Korean special forces had begun moving to help Russia participate in the war in Ukraine. On the 18th of October, the South Korean government’s National Intelligence Service presented various evidence that North Korean troops had begun preparations for deployment. A few days later, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin also said on the 23rd of October that there was evidence that North Korean troops were in Russia. The following day, on the 24th, the European Union criticized the deployment of North Korean troops as a violation of international law and an act of hostility that would have serious consequences. On the same day, the United Nations also expressed its opposition to additional military forces in Ukraine. North Korea’s level of involvement in the war has continued to deepen. North Korea is simply providing weapons to Russia.

In early August, dozens of North Korean military officials and officers appeared on the battlefield in Ukraine. They visited the KN-23 missile launch site that North Korea provided to Russia. In addition, the possibility and concerns regarding troop deployment have been raised in vairious ways as North Korea and and Russias relationship has deepened. Last June, North Korea and Russia held a meeting in Pyongyang: They held a summit and signed a treaty on strategic partnership. At that time, Article 4 of the treaty provided the basis for military support in response to mutual acts of armed aggression.

North Korea disclosed through its state-run media that Kim Jong-un had observed special warfare training in September. It is presumed that Kim Jong-un conducted an inspection as North Korea began preparing in earnest for troop deployment. In August, Ukraine attacked Kursk on the Russian mainland, creating unfavorable conditions for Russia. This is the background to the presumption that Russia, in a state of desperation, requested troop support from North Korea. Up until now, North Korea has supported Russias illegal invasion by supplying various weapons, including ammunition, to Russia. However, by sending troops and participates directly, the level of ripple effect will also change. It could also have a direct impact on security in Northeast Asia.

Christopher Clarke, a history professor at Cambridge University, pointed out that at that time, there was a pervasive atmosphere of mutual distrust in Europe, and the protagonists of 1914 were sleepwalkers who, with their eyes wide open, could not see, were caught up in a dream and did not realize the true nature of the horror they were about to unleash on the world. in his book Sleepwalkers, which analyzes the outbreak of World War I.
This is the interpretation that the European countries, which prided themselves on being civilized, failed to remain alert and thought ‘Surely not’, which led to a series of conflicts occurring all over the world, which eventually escalated into world war. Therefore, even today, we can obtain a reasonable analysis and lesson that the local conflict that started in Ukraine can escalate into a world war at any time. After the outbreak of the Ukrainian War, there are ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, and concerns persist that military conflicts could occur simultaneously in Taiwan. In this way, we are already a few steps toward a world war. This is the background to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasizing on the 3rd of November that the North Korean troops deployment could be a very dangerous escalation and that all measures must be taken to avoid internationalization of the conflict.

Cooperation between North Korea and Russia can form and solidify a confrontational structure among North Korea, China, Russia – South Korea, the US, and Japan. This is a strategy intended by North Korea. This is because it can ultimately work to the advantage of the vulnerable Kim Jong-un regime and the North Korean system. The confrontation between the camps increases North Koreas value to China and Russia, and encourages them to support the regime and system to continue. In particular, Russias support for North Korea can lead to closer ties between North Korea and Russia, and hinder efforts to weaken sanctions against North Korea and denuclearize North Korea. North Koreas advancement of nuclear armament is ultimately worrisome because it can lead the Kim Jong-un regime and the North Korean system to make wrong choices, such as military provocations, or create favorable conditions.

Therefore, we must suppress North Korea’s miscalculation, strengthen multilateral cooperation and solidarity with allies, and reduce the effect of North Korea’s military deployment on the war. The international community must urgently work to stop North Korea-Russia cooperation. Ultimately, efforts must be made to end the Ukraine war as quickly as possible in the right direction. North Koreas intervention will prolong the war, and the continuation of the war will trigger North Korea-Russia cooperation. Efforts are needed to break this vicious cycle of evil d

***The Korean Peninsula’s Future in German Reunification

Since Germany’s peaceful reunification on October 3, 1990, the concept of “preparation for reunification” has become a significant part of South Korean discourse.
For South Korea, which has long aspired to reunite with the North, Germany’s experience serves as a dual source of shame for not achieving reunification and hope that Korea might follow in Germany’s footsteps.

The post-reunification integration process in Germany demonstrates that achieving reunification is a long-term undertaking that cannot rely solely on economic integration; social and cultural integration are equally vital.
Germany’s integration can broadly be divided into two phases: the first half focused on economic integration, while the second half exposed deeper issues in social and cultural integration, largely due to the incomplete embedding of democracy.

In the aftermath of reunification, over 9 million economically active East Germans faced unemployment, leading to a profound existential crisis. Initially, the urgency of resolving economic issues overshadowed internal conflicts within the newly unified Germany. The reunification, led by West Germany, treated East Germany as an illegal state under the Stasi regime, making it difficult for East Germans to voice their concerns early on.
This suppression led to the build-up of social and cultural conflicts, and as Ralf Dahrendorf predicted in 1990, the transplanted democratic system displayed instability under both internal and external pressures.

The 2024 state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, both part of the former East Germany, revealed significant political shifts. The far-right populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), emerged as a major force, becoming the second-largest party in Saxony and the largest in Thuringia.
In Thuringia, the AfD secured over one-third of the seats, allowing it to veto important decisions. Conversely, Die Linke, the successor to East Germany’s Communist Party, faced a dramatic decline, garnering only 4.5% of the vote, threatening its parliamentary presence.

This political transformation in former East Germany suggests a society evolving into something distinct from its past. Perspectives like that of Professor D. Oschmann, who described East Germany as a “West German invention,” persist, framing reunified Germany as a continuous conflict between East and West.

Through its reunification, Germany not only provides South Korea with a vision of potential unification for the Korean Peninsula but also reflects the current reality of division through its own historical experiences.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has publicly shifted the narrative regarding inter-Korean relations. During a Central Committee plenary meeting on December 30, 2023, he declared that these relations are now characterized as “a hostilerelationship between two states” rather than between compatriots.
This stance was reinforced during the Supreme People’s Assembly on January 15, 2024, where he asserted that the concepts of “unification” and “compatriots” should be entirely eliminated.

This shift in North Korea’s position mirrors East Germany’s historical response to West Germany’s overtures.
When West German Chancellor Willy Brandt, on October 28, 1969, renounced the claim to sole representation of Germany and effectively recognized East Germany as a state, he emphasized the need to “maintain national unity” for future reunification.
East Germany, in turn, asserted the existence of two separate nations, framing West Germany as a capitalist state and itself as a socialist one.

As South Korea contemplates its path to reunification, the lessons drawn from Germany’s experiences—both the possibilities and the challenges—will be crucial in shaping its future strategy toward the North.
The historical parallels suggest that while economic considerations are essential, understanding the social and cultural dimensions of integration will be key to achieving a harmonious reunification on the Korean Peninsula.

A representative of the NGO, North Korean Human Rights, has called for the International Criminal Court (ICC) to hold North Korea accountable for its involvement in supplying weapons to Russia, which have been used in the ongoing war against Ukraine.

On June 19, 2024, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin to Pyongyang in a high-profile visit, despite Russia being deeply embroiled in the conflict with Ukraine.
The summit resulted in the signing of a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement,” which committed both nations to mutual military assistance in the event of an invasion.
This agreement, alongside reported shipments of artillery shells and other weapons from North Korea to Russia, raises serious concerns about both nations’ violations of international law and United Nations (UN) sanctions.

According to the South Korean Ministry of National Defense, North Korea has shipped an estimated 12,000 containers of artillery shells to Russia since August 2023.
These weapons have reportedly been used in Russian attacks against Ukrainian civilians, in direct violation of the Geneva Conventions and other international treaties governing the conduct of war.
The ICC has jurisdiction over war crimes, including those outlined under Article 8(2)(a) of the Rome Statute, such as willful killing and the targeting of civilians.
North Korea’s complicity in aiding Russia through the provision of artillery shells and ballistic missiles could constitute a violation of Article 25(3)(c) of the ICC Statute, which addresses aiding and abetting war crimes.
Reports indicate that North Korean missiles were used in multiple strikes on Ukrainian cities, causing significant civilian casualties.

The ICC has already issued arrest warrants for key Russian officials, including President Putin, for war crimes.
As North Korean weapons continue to contribute to these atrocities, the international community is calling for a similar ICC referral for Kim Jong-un.

This case highlights the need for increased diplomatic and psychological pressure on both Russia and North Korea to halt the unlawful attacks and prevent further civilian harm.