Former Minister of Sports and Youth Development, Solomon Dalung, has described the outcome of the Osun governorship election as a significant political warning ahead of the 2027 general elections, saying its implications could extend beyond the state.
Dalung said the election had raised questions about the strength of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s political base in the Southwest and what the development could mean for the President’s electoral calculations ahead of 2027.
In a statement, Dalung noted that although Tinubu won the Southwest in the 2023 presidential election, the region did not deliver the overwhelming numbers that some had expected from the “one of our own” sentiment.
He argued that Tinubu’s eventual victory depended substantially on the coalition he built outside the Southwest, particularly in the North.
According to him, the political significance of the Osun election lies in the fact that it provides an opportunity to assess whether the President’s political capital in his home region remains as strong as expected.
“When a President’s strongest political base is expected to be his region, every subsequent election in that region becomes more than just another state contest. It becomes a test of how much of that political capital is still intact,” Dalung said.
He said the Osun election was particularly important because of the level of political mobilisation around the contest, arguing that the involvement of political heavyweights made it difficult to regard the outcome as an ordinary governorship election.
Dalung said the inability of the political machinery deployed in the state to translate into votes should prompt serious reflection within the political class.
He added that the major question arising from the election was not simply whether the APC had lost Osun, but whether the result would strengthen perceptions among politicians outside the Southwest that Tinubu could not automatically rely on his region to deliver the numbers needed for victory in 2027.
“That could become important in the North,” he warned.
According to the former minister, presidential politics is ultimately about “bargaining, expectations and numbers”, stressing that a candidate who needs one region to compensate for another must continuously maintain the confidence of both political blocs.
“If either side begins to feel that it is carrying more of the burden, or that its political importance is being taken for granted, the arithmetic becomes considerably more difficult,” he said.
Dalung therefore urged politicians preparing for the 2027 elections to pay close attention to the message from Osun, describing the state as a relatively small political territory with potentially significant national consequences.
He said the election had demonstrated that political influence and government machinery did not automatically translate into electoral ownership.
“The people of Osun have reminded everyone, including the most powerful politicians in the country, that political influence is not the same thing as electoral ownership,” Dalung said.
He added: “The mathematics of 2027 may already be beginning to reveal itself.”