Nigeria’s 2026 budget presentation faces uncertainty, as the Senate has suspended consideration of new fiscal proposals pending a detailed account from the executive on the performance of the 2024 and 2025 budgets.
This was the clear message on Thursday from the Senate Committee on Finance, which directed top managers of the economy to submit a comprehensive performance report on the 2024 budget and projections for the 2025 fiscal year within two weeks.
The directive followed a closed-door meeting lasting over an hour between the committee and key government officials, including the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun; the Accountant-General of the Federation, Mr. Samsudeen Ogunjimi; and the Director-General of the Budget Office, Mr. Tanimu Yakubu.
Committee chairman, Senator Mohammed Sani Musa (APC, Niger East), told journalists after the session that the lawmakers had resolved not to consider the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for 2026–2029 until the finance team submits the requested documents on October 23.
“We’ve reviewed the progress made on the 2024 budget and discussed expectations for 2025,” Musa said. “But before we proceed with the MTEF and FSP for 2026, we must see clear, documented evidence of performance. The Minister of Finance has agreed to provide this report, and we will reconvene on October 23.”
Musa explained that the committee examined details of funds released so far, warrants issued, and levels of authority granted to MDAs to execute capital projects. He added that the committee acknowledged President Bola Tinubu’s recent request for new loan approvals from the National Assembly, intended to strengthen fiscal operations and support 2025 capital spending.
“We have made some progress, but we must do more to ensure that the 2026 fiscal cycle begins on solid ground,” the senator added.
However, while Minister Wale Edun insisted that the capital component of the 2024 budget was “performing well,” the Director-General of the Budget Office painted a far bleaker picture.
Mr. Yakubu described the 2024 and 2025 budget implementation cycles as “turbulent,” citing missed fiscal assumptions and widening shortfalls in key revenue streams.
“We have had a difficult year — one in which most of the assumptions underpinning the 2024 and 2025 budgets turned out differently from projections,” he said.
Yakubu noted that crude oil prices, benchmarked at $75 per barrel, have hovered $10 to $15 lower due to global price instability. Inflation, he said, has also overshot targets, driving up debt service costs and squeezing funds available for capital projects.
He further revealed that the fiscal provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2022 had significantly reduced inflows to the Federation Account.
“Under the PIA, 30 percent of gross oil revenue and 30 percent of oil and gas profits are retained for upstream operations, while the Federal Government shoulders NNPC’s operating costs,” Yakubu said. “This has cut allocations to the Federation Account by nearly 70 percent of previous levels.”
The Budget Office chief added that Nigeria’s oil production has consistently fallen below targets set in the MTEF, worsening cash flow pressures and delaying payments for approved projects.
The cumulative effect, analysts say, could stall the presentation of the 2026 Appropriation Bill — undermining President Tinubu’s promise to sustain the January-to-December budget cycle achieved under the previous administration.
