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Nigeria to Redefine GDP with Hidden Economy to Reflect True Wealth

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Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has announced plans to include previously unaccounted-for illegal and hidden activities in its GDP calculations.
This ground breaking move aims to provide a more accurate picture of the economy, which has seen a decline in global ranking, falling to the fourth-largest in Africa.

The new GDP framework will incorporate activities such as black-market dealings, the digital economy, and household labor, alongside conventional sectors.
Senior NBS official Moses Waniko highlighted the economic impact of informal and even illegal activities, like prostitution, on the formal economy.
Moses Waniko, a senior official at the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said the new exercise could show that Nigeria has a bigger economy than currently estimated.

“There are economic activities that have no legal backing,” he said, citing prostitution. “The practitioners earn income from them and sometimes live bigger than those in the formal sector. At the end of the day, the income earned impacts the formal economy,” Waniko said.

Waniko said a new calculation was necessary to reflect changing economic realities.

It will consider 2019 as the base year, he said, adding that new segments to be considered in the calculation include the digital economy, health and social insurance, pensions, modular refineries, mining and households employing labour.

“We expect that the size of the economy will be bigger,” he said.

“The tax-to-GDP ratio is something that people may want to see… Debt to GDP ratio of 18.5 percent as of September 2019 could also reduce with the bigger size of the GDP, and then per-capita income will increase after the rebasing.”

He said the contribution of the crude oil sector to the economy had reduced, dropping from third place to fifth.

The real estate sector is now in third place after agriculture and trade.
This recalibration, the first since 2014, could significantly expand Nigeria’s economic size, recalibrate tax and debt ratios, and potentially restore its position as Africa’s leading economy.

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Economy

2025 Budget: Bigger, But Worse? Adebayo Warns of Economic Fallout

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Adewole Adebayo

**Says Inflation, debt, forex crisis will worsen

As the National Assembly passes the record-breaking ₦54.99 trillion 2025 budget, former Presidential candidate of the Social Democratic Party( SDP) Adewale Adebayor has sharply criticized the financial plan, calling it poorly designed and economically dangerous.

Speaking on the feasibility of the budget, Adebayor dismissed the increase in figures as superficial, arguing that it fails to address core economic challenges, saying it has missed the mark

“Increasing the overall budget does not improve its structure. It doesn’t account for the country’s actual revenue, doesn’t meet the minimum benchmarks of previous years, and worsens our debt situation,” he stated.

According to him, instead of focusing on investment, infrastructure, and economic stability, the government has pumped money into the wrong areas, which will aggravate inflation and disrupt monetary policy goals.

Adebayor warned that Nigerians, both in the public and private sectors as he called on Nigerianss to brace for a worsening financial crisis, including higher inflation,
Severe forex instability, Ballooning debt and rising poverty levels

Looking beyond the economy, Adebayor pointed out that only one more budget will be passed before the next elections.
He urged Nigerians to view this financial mismanagement as a wake-up call, suggesting that the current administration may not be capable of making the necessary corrections.

“The people should prepare to replace this government. The correction will have to come from the next administration,” he concluded.

With analysts sounding the alarm, all eyes are now on the government’s implementation strategy. Will they adjust course to prevent a crisis, or will Nigeria’s financial troubles continue to spiral?

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Economy

Nigeria Showcases Economic Transformation at Davos 2025

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Wale Edun

Nigeria has taken centre stage at the 2025 World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, with a delegation led by Vice President Kashim Shettima and the Honourable Minister of Finance, Mr. Wale Edun.
The country is showcasing its economic transformation agenda aimed at achieving sustainable growth and inclusive development.

Speaking ahead of the event, Mr. Wale Edun expressed optimism about Nigeria’s economic trajectory.
In an exclusive interview with Africa Business Magazine, the Finance Minister emphasized the tangible progress being made under President Bola Tinubu’s administration.
Director of Information and public Relations Muhammed Manga in a statement on Wednesday quoted Edun to have listed Key accomplishments, to include an increase in domestic refining capacity, a stabilized exchange rate, improved fiscal transparency, and rising foreign reserves.

“These policies are positioning Nigeria as a prime investment destination,” Edun stated, adding that transformative infrastructure projects, coupled with enhanced government revenue and social protection programmes, are positively impacting millions of Nigerians

Nigeria’s active participation at WEF 2025 underscores its determination to lead global economic conversations and attract the investments needed for long-term sustainable development.
With strategic policies and a focus on inclusivity and transparency, the country is poised to strengthen its role as a key player in the global economy.

This bold vision, rooted in tangible achievements, is expected to pave the way for a brighter and more prosperous future for all Nigerians

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Economy

NES President Advocates Cash Transfers, Capital Spending to Reset Nigeria’s Economy

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The President of the Nigerian Economic Society (NES), Professor Adeola Adenikinju, has urged the Federal Government to prioritize direct cash transfers to the poor while ramping up capital spending in the 2025 budget.
Speaking during an interactive session with the Senate Committee on Appropriation, Professor Adenikinju described these measures as pivotal for alleviating poverty and driving sustainable economic growth.

The session, held in Abuja on Thursday, was part of deliberations on the proposed ₦49.7 trillion ‘Budget of Restoration,’ which President Bola Tinubu submitted in December 2024.
The budget aims to tackle Nigeria’s economic challenges while laying the groundwork for structural reforms.
“Targeted cash transfers to the poor can deliver immediate relief to millions facing economic hardship,” Professor Adenikinju said. “At the same time, increased investment in infrastructure and other capital projects will stimulate job creation and boost long-term economic productivity.”
The NES president also highlighted Nigeria’s pressing revenue challenges, stressing that the government must implement bold, innovative measures to unlock economic potential and stabilize the fiscal environment.
The interactive session featured contributions from lawmakers, economic experts, and civil society organizations. Senator Adeola Olamilekan, Chairman of the Senate Appropriation Committee, commended the budget’s ambition, calling it “a roadmap to economic restoration.”
He affirmed the Senate’s commitment to supporting President Tinubu’s administration in addressing revenue shortfalls and stabilizing the economy.
“The projections in this budget are daring but achievable. We are focused on delivering an economic framework that fosters growth and inclusion,” Senator Olamilekan stated.
Senate President Godswill Akpabio reinforced this optimism, pledging the 10th Senate’s dedication to the administration’s fiscal agenda. However, Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Atiku Bagudu, cautioned against relying solely on cash transfers to combat poverty. He emphasized policies that promote business growth and entrepreneurship as more sustainable poverty-alleviation strategies.
“Empowering businesses is the key to creating jobs and reducing poverty on a large scale,” Bagudu argued. “While cash transfers provide short-term relief, our focus must remain on strengthening the private sector and fostering economic activity.”
This stakeholders’ meeting marks a historic approach to fiscal planning in the National Assembly, fostering collaboration among lawmakers, economists, and civil society. Participants agreed that balancing social welfare initiatives with robust capital investment is crucial to achieving the goals of the 2025 budget.
As the Senate works toward finalizing the fiscal plan, the session underscored the importance of building consensus on policies that can deliver both immediate and long-term economic benefits.
The 2025 budget presents an opportunity to not only address Nigeria’s current challenges but also lay the foundation for a more inclusive and resilient economic future.

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