Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding petrol supply from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery may push the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to about N1,400 per litre in the coming days, industry operators have warned.
Marketers said the possibility of a price increase follows a surge in international crude oil prices, which has heightened production costs for refiners and tightened supply across global energy markets.
Sources within the downstream petroleum sector disclosed that petrol loading activities at the refinery had slowed, with marketers awaiting a possible review of the refinery’s ex-depot price.
The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria confirmed that many of its members were unable to load petrol from the refinery at the weekend, raising concerns about supply stability and possible price adjustments.
National President of PETROAN, Billy Gillis-Harry, said the uncertainty surrounding crude oil prices has made it difficult for operators to predict the direction of petrol prices in the short term.
“The crude oil market is very unstable at the moment. Until the tensions in the Middle East subside, it will be difficult to determine what direction prices will take,” he said.
Industry sources within the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria also indicated that many operators were holding back on lifting products while awaiting clarity on new pricing from the refinery.
Similarly, the Nigerian Association of Road Transport Owners said tanker drivers were not actively loading petrol from the facility, noting that only a few marketers were reportedly lifting products.
Energy analyst Jide Pratt warned that relying heavily on a single dominant refinery for domestic petrol supply exposes the market to volatility whenever supply disruptions occur.
However, the refinery has dismissed claims that petrol loading activities have been halted.
The Chief Corporate Communications Officer of the Dangote Group, Anthony Chiejina, described the reports as inaccurate, maintaining that product supply remains ongoing and that pricing will continue to reflect prevailing international market conditions.
Market checks across filling stations in Lagos showed that petrol prices already exceed N1,000 per litre in several locations, with pump prices ranging between N1,015 and N1,057 depending on supply channels and location.
Industry data indicate that the ex-depot price of petrol in Lagos currently ranges between N940 and N1,000 per litre, reflecting increasing cost pressures faced by marketers in sourcing and distributing the product.
Energy market intelligence also shows that global crude oil benchmarks remain elevated, with Brent crude trading around $85 per barrel while Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude trades above $83 per barrel.
Operators warn that if crude prices continue their upward trajectory towards $100 per barrel, petrol prices in Nigeria could climb closer to N1,400 per litre.
Meanwhile, the refinery said it currently receives about five cargoes of crude monthly from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, significantly below the estimated 13 cargoes required to sustain full-scale domestic supply.
The shortfall has compelled the refinery to source additional crude from international markets, exposing local petrol prices to fluctuations in global oil prices and foreign exchange rates.
Industry experts caution that unless crude supply improves and geopolitical tensions ease, Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market could face further price volatility in the months ahead.
Middle East Tensions, Dangote Supply Uncertainty May Push Petrol to N1,400
