Article
Nigeria at a cross-road
A Policy Direction..
*Preamble*
We write to speak up as concerned Nigerians, democrats, and veterans who are worried, embarrassed, and traumatized by the depths into which Nigeria has sunk in recent times. The past 25 years of democratic governance, while meant to usher in an era of progress and prosperity, have instead been marked by a tragic irony.
The political class, entrusted with the responsibility of leading the nation towards a brighter future, has seemingly benefited immensely, while the people who voted them into power continue to grapple with the harsh realities of economic hardship, insecurity, and pervasive corruption. The dwindling quality of leadership, the diminishing capacity to deliver on development, and the recklessness and lack of empathy displayed by those in power are deeply troubling.
The future of our teeming youth hangs precariously in the balance, jeopardized by the very individuals who should be safeguarding it. The stark contrast between the opulence enjoyed by the political elite and the suffering endured by the masses is a testament to the profound disconnect between the government and the governed.
The consequences of this political failure are painfully evident in all facets of Nigerian life.
Agricultural production, once the pride of our nation, has been crippled by insecurity and ineptitude.
Today, even basic staples like tomatoes are beyond the reach of the average citizen, let alone the impoverished masses.
Our political leaders, meanwhile, have displayed a callous disregard for the plight of the people they are meant to serve.
They continue to pad budgets, purchase luxury vehicles, allocate to themselves exorbitant allowances, and accumulate debts that future generations will be burdened with. In short, the political class has brought our nation to its knees.
The tragedy of the past year is that the current regime has not only exacerbated our existing problems but has also demonstrated a lack of empathy and competence in addressing them. The removal of fuel subsidies, without any accompanying measures to mitigate the impact, has sent prices skyrocketing. The floating of the Naira, in accordance with IMF dictates, has led to a devastating devaluation of our currency, causing chaos in the economy. The rise in taxation and electricity tariffs has forced many businesses to close, and even private schools are struggling to stay afloat.
The executive and legislative branches, and some would argue the judiciary as well, appear to be colluding in a grand scheme to plunder the nation’s resources. The alleged purchase of a presidential yacht, the Betta Edu scandal, the ongoing budget padding, the minimum wage saga, the controversial coastal highway contract, the acquisition of presidential jets – all these paints a picture of a political class on a rampage, either oblivious to the consequences of their actions or simply too intoxicated by power to care.
These actions, or lack thereof, have created a vast trust deficit between the government and the governed.
This deficit has fuelled a growing cynicism, which in turn breeds despair and hopelessness.
As hunger ravages the impoverished population and citizens become increasingly desperate, crime rates soar, spaces become unsafe and ungoverned, and the spectre of anarchy looms large.
Meanwhile, our political office holders remain insulated in their privileged bubbles, untouched by the suffering they have inflicted upon the nation.
We dare not contemplate the consequences of this bubble bursting. It is imperative that we as a nation confront this crisis head-on, before it is too late. We must demand accountability from our leaders, and we must work together to forge a new path forward, one that is built on trust, transparency, and a genuine commitment to the welfare of all Nigerians.
Policy Direction
Nigeria stands at a perilous crossroads, a nation teetering on the precipice of uncertainty.
As concerned citizens, we believe it is imperative to engage in a public discourse on the pressing issues that threaten to unravel the fabric of our society. We propose a policy direction that addresses the inextricably linked issues of economy, security, and corruption, three interconnected challenges that have cast a long and ominous shadow over our nation’s prospects.
While we do not claim to possess a monopoly on wisdom, we are convinced that mere lamentations and expressions of outrage will not suffice in extricating Nigeria from its current predicament.
We therefore offer our solutions in the hope of sparking a national conversation on the path forward, a dialogue that transcends partisan divides and embraces the collective wisdom of all Nigerians.
Our policy direction begins with the recognition that the economy is the lifeblood of any nation.
A robust and diversified economy is essential for creating jobs, reducing poverty, and improving the quality of life for all citizens. We propose a series of measures aimed at revitalizing the economy, including investments in infrastructure, agriculture, and manufacturing. We advocate for policies that promote entrepreneurship, innovation, and the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises. We believe that by unleashing the creative energies of our people, we can build a more prosperous and equitable society.
Security is another paramount concern. The escalating violence, fuelled by ethnic and religious tensions, banditry, and terrorism, has created a climate of fear and insecurity.
We propose a multi-pronged approach to addressing this crisis, including strengthening law enforcement agencies, improving intelligence gathering and analysis, and addressing the root causes of conflict. We also advocate for greater community engagement and the promotion of dialogue and reconciliation.
Corruption, the cancer that has eaten deep into the heart of our nation, must be eradicated. We propose a zero-tolerance approach to corruption, with strict enforcement of anti-corruption laws and regulations. We advocate for greater transparency and accountability in government, as well as the strengthening of institutions responsible for combating corruption. We believe that by creating a culture of integrity and accountability, we can restore public trust in government and create a level playing field for all.
*State of the Economy – A Diagnosis*
In assessing the current state of the Nigerian economy, one cannot escape the grim reality of an unprecedented surge in inflation, reaching levels not seen since mid1996. This alarming trend is a confluence of both domestic and international factors, creating a perfect storm that is rapidly eroding the purchasing power of Nigerians and casting a long and ominous shadow over the nation’s economic stability.
High inflation rates, escalating from 22.79% in June 2023 to a staggering 34.19% as of June 2024, have severely impacted the average Nigerian’s ability to maintain their standard of living. This alarming figure is fuelled by a trifecta of factors: the removal of fuel subsidies, which has led to a more than 200% increase in petrol prices since May 2023; the unification of exchange rates, resulting in a devaluation of over 100% against the US dollar since its implementation; and global supply chain disruptions, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. These factors have combined to create a cost-of-living crisis of unprecedented proportions, with devastating consequences for individuals, businesses, and the nation as a whole.
The consequences of this high inflation are manifold and far-reaching. The escalating prices are rapidly eroding the purchasing power of Nigerians, making it increasingly difficult for ordinary citizens to afford basic necessities like food, housing, and healthcare. This erosion of purchasing power is not only a threat to individual wellbeing but also a significant drag on economic growth, as consumer spending, a key driver of the economy, is severely curtailed.
The sharp rise in food prices is particularly alarming, with food inflation, which has consistently outpaced headline inflation, reaching a staggering 40.9% as of June 2024, compared to 25.25% in June 2023. This is pushing millions of Nigerians into food insecurity and malnutrition, as the cost of basic food items like rice, bread, and cooking oil becomes increasingly out of reach. The situation is exacerbated by Nigeria’s reliance on imported food, making it particularly vulnerable to global price shocks.
The escalating cost of living is causing widespread economic hardship, forcing families to make difficult choices and cut back on essential expenses. Many Nigerians are struggling to pay for rent, healthcare, and education, leading to a decline in their overall well-being. This economic hardship is not only a humanitarian crisis but also a threat to social stability, as evidenced by the increasing frequency of protests and demonstrations by citizens expressing their frustration with the deteriorating economic situation.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has attempted to curb inflation by raising interest rates multiple times, reaching 26.75% as of July 2024, compared to 18.75% in July 2023. However, these measures have had limited success so far, and economists warn that further inflationary pressures may arise due to ongoing global challenges and the need for continued fiscal discipline.
*Prognosis*
The current economic trajectory paints a bleak picture for Nigeria’s future. If the current trends persist, the nation will face a multi-faceted crisis with severe and enduring consequences. The escalating cost of living will exacerbate poverty levels, pushing millions deeper into economic hardship, and potentially leading to widespread social unrest and political instability. The devaluation of the Naira will have a profound impact on businesses and consumers alike, further fueling inflation and squeezing household budgets. The rising cost of living will not only have immediate economic consequences but also long-term negative impacts on human development, as families are forced to cut back on essential expenses like healthcare and education.
The road ahead is fraught with challenges, but it is not without hope. Bold and decisive action is needed to address the root causes of this crisis and set Nigeria on a path towards sustainable economic growth and prosperity.
*Short-Term Policy Recommendations for Immediate Economic Relief*
In response to the urgent economic challenges facing the nation, we propose a series of short-term policy recommendations aimed at providing immediate relief to Nigerians and stabilizing the economy. These recommendations are rooted in a deep understanding of the current crisis and a commitment to the well-being of all citizens.
*Revitalized Social Safety Net Program:*
To alleviate the suffering of the most vulnerable, we advocate for a significant expansion of the existing National Social Investment Program (NSIP). This expanded program would encompass a wider range of beneficiaries, including unemployed youth, elderly individuals, and those with disabilities. To ensure that the assistance provided is commensurate with the rising cost of living, we propose a substantial increase in the monthly stipend for beneficiaries. Additionally, a new component focused on providing essential food items and basic healthcare services to the most vulnerable households should be introduced. This comprehensive approach would not only provide immediate relief but also contribute to the long-term well-being of those most affected by the economic crisis.
*Targeted Subsidy Program for Essential Commodities:*
To address the escalating cost of basic necessities, we recommend the implementation of a targeted subsidy program for essential commodities such as rice, flour, cooking oil, and medications. This program would ensure that these essential items remain affordable for low-income households, protecting them from the ravages of inflation. To achieve this, the government should partner with local farmers and manufacturers to procure these commodities at fair prices. These goods would then be distributed through a network of government-approved retailers, utilizing technology such as mobile money platforms to efficiently disburse subsidies directly to eligible beneficiaries.
*Regulatory Streamlining Initiative:*
Recognizing the critical role of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the Nigerian economy, we propose a regulatory streamlining initiative aimed at reducing the burden on businesses and fostering a more conducive environment for growth. A dedicated task force should be established to review and streamline regulatory processes, identifying and eliminating redundant or outdated regulations. Licensing and permit procedures should be simplified, and administrative fees should be reduced. Additionally, a user-friendly online portal should be created to provide businesses with easy access to information and facilitate the completion of regulatory requirements.
These short-term policy recommendations, implemented with urgency and determination, can provide immediate relief to Nigerians struggling with the rising cost of living and economic hardship. It is our hope that by strengthening social safety nets, ensuring access to affordable essential commodities, and reducing the regulatory burden on businesses, the government can mitigate the negative impacts of the current economic crisis and lay the groundwork for a more resilient and equitable economy.
Medium-Term Policy Recommendations for Sustainable Economic Growth
*Tax System Overhaul and Revenue Optimization:*
A comprehensive overhaul of the tax system is essential to enhance revenue generation and ensure a fairer distribution of the tax burden. We advocate for a simplified tax code that is transparent and easy to understand, reducing exemptions and loopholes that often benefit the wealthy at the expense of the majority. Progressive tax measures should be introduced to ensure that those with higher incomes contribute a greater share to the nation’s development.
To oversee the design and implementation of these reforms, the dedicated Tax Reform Implementation Committee already established by the government should be expanded to include tax experts, economists, and representatives from relevant government agencies, organised private sector, and civil society organisations. This committee should conduct a thorough review of existing tax laws and regulations, identifying areas for improvement and simplification. To streamline tax administration and reduce compliance costs for businesses, a digital tax filing and payment system should be introduced. Additionally, tax enforcement mechanisms should be strengthened to deter tax evasion and avoidance, ensuring that everyone pays their fair share.
*Strategic Infrastructure Investment for Economic Growth:*
Investment in critical infrastructure is a prerequisite for sustainable economic growth. We propose the development and implementation of a National Infrastructure Development Plan that prioritizes investments in power generation and transmission, transportation networks (roads, railways, ports), and digital infrastructure (broadband connectivity). These investments would reduce production costs, improve logistics, and enhance Nigeria’s overall competitiveness in the global market.
To mobilize resources for these projects, a National Infrastructure Fund should be established, drawing from both public and private sources. Projects with high economic and social impact, such as the expansion of electricity generation capacity, the construction of modern highways and railways, and the development of digital infrastructure in underserved areas, should be prioritized. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) should be encouraged to leverage private sector expertise and financing for infrastructure projects, ensuring their efficient and timely completion.
Economic Diversification and Industrialization Strategy:
To reduce Nigeria’s dependence on oil revenue and create a more resilient economy, a comprehensive Economic Diversification Strategy should be formulated and implemented. This strategy would focus on promoting the growth of non-oil sectors such as agriculture, iron and steel, machine tools factories to promote the manufacturing of goods and services. Targeted incentives and support should be provided to these sectors, including financial incentives, tax breaks, and technical assistance. Value chains should be developed to enhance productivity and competitiveness, and exports of value-added products should be promoted.
A dedicated *Economic Diversification Agency* should be established to coordinate and implement this strategy. The agency would identify priority sectors with high growth potential and comparative advantage, providing them with the necessary support to thrive. Investments in research and development should be made to foster innovation and improve productivity. To promote export diversification, new markets should be identified, and trade barriers should be removed.
These medium-term policy recommendations, if implemented with diligence and commitment, can lay the foundation for sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. They represent a bold vision for a future where the economy is diversified, resilient, and inclusive, providing opportunities for all Nigerians to prosper.
*Long-Term Policy Recommendations*
Institutional Strengthening and Good Governance Initiative:
Recognizing that strong institutions are the bedrock of a thriving economy, we advocate for a comprehensive program to bolster key institutions such as the judiciary, civil service, and law enforcement agencies. This initiative would focus on enhancing their capacity, ensuring their independence, and promoting transparency and accountability in their operations. It is our believe that we can create a stable and predictable environment that is conducive to investment and economic growth by fostering a culture of integrity and efficiency within these institutions.
To further promote good governance, mechanisms should be established to encourage public participation in decision-making, strengthen anti-corruption measures, and uphold the rule of law. This would include the creation of independent oversight bodies to monitor the performance of institutions and hold them accountable, as well as reforms to streamline bureaucratic processes, reduce red tape, and enhance service delivery.
*National Skills Development and Education Reform:*
Investing in human capital is essential for long-term economic growth. We propose a comprehensive education reform program that focuses on improving the quality of education at all levels, from primary to tertiary. This would involve revising curricula to align with industry needs, enhancing teacher training, and improving infrastructure and learning resources. In doing so, we can create a workforce that is adaptable, innovative, and globally competitive, while equipping students with the knowledge and skills they need to succeed in the 21st-century economy.
In parallel, the National Board for Technical Education should be strengthened to coordinate and implement skills training programs that address the specific needs of the labour market. This agency should partner with industry and vocational training institutions to develop demand-driven programs that equip workers with the skills needed for a modern and diversified economy. Scholarships and financial aid should be offered to students pursuing technical and vocational education, and a national apprenticeship program should be established to provide on-the-job training and facilitate the transition from school to work.
Green Growth and Sustainable Development Strategy:
To ensure that economic growth is sustainable and environmentally responsible, we propose the development and implementation of a comprehensive Green Growth Strategy.
This strategy would integrate environmental sustainability into all aspects of economic development, promoting renewable energy sources, improving energy efficiency, adopting climate-smart agricultural practices, and investing in green infrastructure. It is our hope that this would safeguard our natural resources, mitigate the impacts of climate change, and create a healthier and more sustainable future for all Nigerians.
To implement this strategy, a Green Growth Council should be established to coordinate and oversee its implementation.
Incentives should be provided for businesses and individuals to adopt green technologies and practices, and investments should be made in research and development to promote innovation in clean energy and sustainable agriculture.
Policies should be implemented to promote sustainable land use, water management, and waste management, and public awareness campaigns should be launched to educate citizens about the importance of environmental sustainability and encourage behavioural change.
*A Diagnosis of the Current State of Security*
In examining the current state of insecurity in Nigeria, we are confronted with a multifaceted crisis that has escalated in recent years, casting a long and ominous shadow over the nation’s stability and progress. This crisis, characterized by diverse yet interconnected challenges, threatens to undermine the very fabric of our society and jeopardize the well-being of our citizens.
Widespread insecurity has become a pervasive reality in Nigeria, manifesting in various forms across different regions.
The Boko Haram insurgency, now in its 15th year, continues to wreak havoc in the north-eastern states, resulting in the displacement of millions, the loss of countless lives, and the destruction of livelihoods. Rural banditry, initially stemming from farmer-herder conflicts, has evolved into a full-fledged security threat, particularly in the Northwest, where states like Zamfara, Kaduna, Katsina, and Niger have witnessed a surge in kidnappings for ransom, highway attacks, and raids on villages.
The North Central zone remains plagued by ethno-religious conflicts, with recent escalations in states like Benue and Plateau resulting in numerous deaths, injuries, and displacement. Kidnapping for ransom and armed robbery have become pervasive threats across the country, affecting both rural and urban areas and instilling fear and uncertainty in the hearts of Nigerians.
The consequences of this widespread insecurity are profound and far-reaching. The ongoing conflicts have resulted in the internal displacement of over 2 million Nigerians, many of whom are living in overcrowded and under-resourced camps. The death toll from these conflicts is staggering, with estimates ranging from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of lives lost. The economic impact is equally devastating, with the insecurity severely disrupting economic activities, particularly in the agricultural sector, leading to food shortages, price hikes, and exacerbating food insecurity. The violence has also deterred investment, both domestic and foreign, hindering economic growth and development.
*Prognosis*
The prognosis, should the security situation continue to deteriorate, is dire.
The humanitarian crisis will worsen, with more people displaced and facing food insecurity, stretching humanitarian resources to their limits and exacerbating the already dire living conditions in IDP camps.
The economy will suffer further, with the agricultural sector devastated, investment deterred, and government spending on security increasing at the expense of essential services like healthcare, education, and infrastructure.
The erosion of state authority due to the government’s inability to provide security will further undermine public trust and confidence, potentially creating a power vacuum that could be exploited by extremist groups and criminal networks.
The violence and insecurity will exacerbate existing social tensions and grievances, potentially leading to further conflict and fragmentation along ethnic, religious, and regional lines.
The deteriorating security situation could also create fertile ground for the recruitment and radicalization of individuals by extremist groups, further fuelling the cycle of violence and instability.
The situation is indeed critical, but it is not beyond redemption.
Urgent and decisive action is required to address the root causes of insecurity, strengthen security forces, promote peacebuilding and reconciliation, and provide humanitarian assistance to those affected. Failure to do so will not only jeopardize the lives and livelihoods of millions of Nigerians but also threaten the very fabric of our nation.
Policy Recommendations
Recognizing the multifaceted nature of insecurity in Nigeria, we propose a comprehensive set of policy recommendations that address both the immediate challenges and the underlying root causes.
These recommendations are designed to foster a more secure and stable environment for all Nigerians, encompassing shortterm measures for immediate relief, medium-term strategies for sustainable improvement, and long-term initiatives for lasting peace.
*Short-Term Policy Recommendations:*
To address the immediate security challenges, we propose the following actionable policies:
1. Launch a Rapid Response Humanitarian Aid Initiative:
Provide immediate humanitarian assistance to internally displaced persons (IDPs) and communities affected by violence. This should include the provision of food, water, shelter, medical care, and psychosocial support. A dedicated Humanitarian Response Task Force should be established in partnership with international organizations, NGOs, and local community groups to coordinate the delivery of aid and services, prioritizing the protection of vulnerable groups.
2. Establish a National Security Coordination Centre (NSCC) to enhance collaboration and information sharing among security agencies at the federal and state levels. The NSCC should serve as a central hub for intelligence gathering, analysis, and dissemination, enabling a more coordinated and effective response to security threats.
3. Increase the number of security personnel (“boots on the ground”) in conflictaffected areas through targeted recruitment, comprehensive training, and adequate equipping.
4. Strengthen community policing initiatives by building trust and cooperation between security agencies and local communities. This should involve training and deploying community police officers who are familiar with the local context and can effectively engage with residents to gather intelligence, prevent crime, and resolve conflicts.
5. The government should partner with indigenous groups, local hunters, and trade associations familiar with the terrain and community dynamics to strengthen local security arrangements in conflict zones. This would ensure the integration of local knowledge and expertise into security strategies to enhance effectiveness and cultural sensitivity.
6. Establish a National Peacebuilding and Reconciliation Commission (NPRC) to facilitate dialogue and reconciliation between conflicting groups. The NPRC would mediate disputes, promote understanding, and build trust between communities, working in collaboration with traditional and religious leaders.
*Medium-Term Policy Recommendations:*
To address the root causes of insecurity and promote sustainable security, we recommend the following;
1. Implement targeted programs to address poverty, unemployment, and marginalization, which are often underlying drivers of insecurity. This would include initiatives to create jobs, provide vocational training, and support small businesses, thus empowering individuals, and communities to build a better future.
2. Undertake comprehensive security sector reform to improve the effectiveness, accountability, and professionalism of security agencies. This should involve reviewing recruitment and training procedures, strengthening oversight mechanisms, and promoting respect for human rights.
3. Invest in education and skills development programs to provide young people with alternatives to crime and violence. This would include expanding access to quality education, vocational training, and entrepreneurship support, thus empowering next generation to become productive members of society.
*Long-Term Policy Recommendations:*
To foster lasting peace and social cohesion, we propose the following long-term initiatives;
1. Launch a National Social Cohesion and Integration Program: Promote social cohesion and national unity through education, cultural exchange programs, and interfaith dialogue. This would involve fostering understanding and respect for diversity, promoting shared values, and building bridges between different communities.
2. Address the proliferation of small arms and light weapons (SALW) through stricter controls on their importation, manufacture, and circulation, including strengthening border security, improving stockpile management, and promoting disarmament and demobilization programs.
3. Strengthen regional security cooperation to combat cross-border crime and terrorism. This would involve sharing intelligence, conducting joint operations, and harmonizing legal frameworks to address transnational security threats.
4. Strengthen the justice system to ensure fair, timely, and effective prosecution of criminals. This would involve improving judicial independence, enhancing the capacity of law enforcement agencies, and promoting access to justice for all.
5. Build trust between security agencies and communities through dialogue, engagement, and accountability. This would involve addressing grievances, promoting transparency, and ensuring that security forces operate within the bounds of the law.
These policy recommendations, implemented in a phased and comprehensive manner, can address the multifaceted security challenges facing Nigeria and pave the way for a more secure, stable, and prosperous future.
*Diagnosis of Corruption in Nigeria – a Systemic Challenge.*
Nigeria’s struggle with corruption is not a recent phenomenon but a deeply entrenched systemic challenge that has permeated all levels of government, the private sector, and even civil society.
This pervasive issue manifests in various forms, each contributing to a culture of impunity and eroding the nation’s potential for growth and development.
Bribery, the exchange of money, gifts, or favours to influence the actions of public officials, is a commonplace occurrence in Nigeria.
This insidious practice undermines the integrity of public institutions and distorts decision-making processes, favouring those with the means to pay rather than those with merit or genuine need. Embezzlement, the misappropriation and plunder of public funds for personal gain, is another widespread form of corruption that deprives the country of much-needed resources for development and perpetuates poverty and inequality.
The abuse of office by public officials, who often exploit their positions of power for personal enrichment, is yet another manifestation of this pervasive problem. Awarding contracts to cronies or demanding kickbacks for services not only undermines the rule of law but also erodes public trust in government institutions. Political patronage and clientelism, where political leaders reward supporters with jobs and contracts regardless of their qualifications, further entrench this culture of corruption and undermine meritocracy.
The economic and social costs of corruption are staggering.
The World Bank estimates that corruption costs Nigeria billions of dollars annually, a sum that could be invested in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and other essential services, improving the lives of millions of Nigerians. This diversion of resources perpetuates poverty, exacerbates inequality, and hinders the nation’s development.
Corruption also undermines public trust in government institutions, erodes the rule of law, and creates a climate of cynicism and apathy.
This makes it difficult to mobilize public support for reform efforts and hinders the country’s progress. It also exacerbates social inequality by concentrating wealth and power in the hands of a corrupt few, while the majority of the population suffers from a lack of basic services and opportunities.
The manifestations of corruption in Nigeria are evident in various indices and reports.
Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index (CPI) consistently ranks Nigeria low, indicating a high level of perceived corruption.
The country’s inclusion on the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) “grey list” due to deficiencies in its anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing regime further highlights its vulnerability to illicit financial flows and the need for stronger measures to combat corruption. Reports of the Auditor General of the Federation regularly uncover cases of financial mismanagement, misappropriation of funds, and other corrupt practices in government agencies, underscoring the systemic nature of the problem.
The prognosis, if corruption is not tackled decisively, is bleak. *The country will remain trapped in a vicious cycle of poverty, inequality, and social unrest.*
Economic development will be stifled, public services will deteriorate, and investor confidence will dwindle. The legitimacy of the government will be further eroded, fuelling cynicism and apathy among the citizenries.
Democratic institutions will weaken, and the rule of law will be undermined, creating a breeding ground for further corruption and instability. In the long run, the failure to address corruption could jeopardize Nigeria’s future, as the country’s vast potential remains untapped, and its citizens continue to suffer the consequences of this pervasive malaise.
Addressing this deeply entrenched issue requires a multi-faceted approach that involves strengthening institutions, promoting transparency and accountability, and fostering a culture of integrity.
It demands a concerted effort from all segments of society, including the government, civil society, the private sector, and the media. Only through a collective commitment to combating corruption can Nigeria break free from its shackles and realize its full potential.
Policy Recommendations
In response to the deeply entrenched and systemic issue of corruption plaguing Nigeria, we propose a comprehensive set of policy recommendations that address the immediate challenges while laying the groundwork for long-term, sustainable reforms. These recommendations, spanning short, medium, and long-term horizons, aim to dismantle the complex web of corruption that has hindered the nation’s progress and prosperity.
*Short-Term Policy Recommendations for Immediate Anti-Corruption Measures:*
1. Operation Clean Sweep: Launch a high-profile anti-corruption campaign targeting prominent cases of corruption involving politically exposed persons (PEPs) and high-ranking government officials. This operation, akin to a surgical strike, would demonstrate the government’s unwavering commitment to combating corruption at the highest levels. A specialized task force within the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) should be established, equipped with adequate resources, legal powers, and protection from political interference, to investigate and prosecute these cases. The progress of these cases should be publicized to maintain public awareness and pressure, sending a clear message that corruption will not be tolerated.
2. Asset Recovery and Forfeiture Initiative: To set up a taskforce to reclaim stolen wealth since 1999 this will deter future corruption, asset recovery mechanisms should be strengthened to trace, freeze, and repatriate assets hidden in foreign jurisdictions. This will involve collaborating with international partners, utilizing legal instruments like the United Nations Convention Against Corruption (UNCAC), and establishing a dedicated asset recovery unit within the government. The initiative will include enacting legislation to facilitate asset recovery and forfeiture, establishing a central database of stolen assets, and collaborating with international law enforcement agencies to track and recover these assets. Recovered assets will be utilized for development projects and social welfare programs, directly benefiting the Nigerian people.
3. Whistle-blower Protection and Reward Program: To encourage reporting of corrupt practices and empower citizens to play an active role in the fight against corruption, whistle-blower protection mechanisms should be strengthened. A Whistle-blower Protection Act should be enacted, guaranteeing anonymity, protection from retaliation, and fair compensation for whistle-blowers. A dedicated whistle-blower protection unit within an independent agency should be established to receive and investigate reports, ensuring that those who come forward are protected and their information is acted upon.
*Medium-Term Policy Recommendations:*
1. Public Procurement Reform: A comprehensive overhaul of public procurement processes should be undertaken to enhance transparency, competition, and accountability. This will involve adopting open contracting principles, publishing procurement data online, and implementing stricter due diligence procedures for contractors and suppliers. A Public Procurement Amendment Act should be enacted, to mandate digitized open contracting, competitive bidding, and transparent award procedures.
2. Asset Declaration and Verification System: A robust asset declaration and verification system should be implemented for all public officials. This system would require officials to declare their assets and liabilities upon assuming office and periodically thereafter. The declared assets will be subject to independent verification to ensure accuracy and detect illicit enrichment. A user-friendly online platform should be developed for asset declaration and verification, and an independent Asset Declaration Verification Agency should be established to conduct thorough verification of declared assets. Strict penalties should be imposed for non-compliance or false declaration.
3. Specialized Anti-Corruption Courts: To expedite the prosecution of corruption cases and ensure justice is served, specialized anti-corruption courts should be established at the federal and state levels. These courts will have dedicated judges and prosecutors with expertise in handling complex financial crimes, as well as streamlined procedures to ensure speedy trials and avoid unnecessary delays. This will send a strong message that corruption will not be tolerated and will deter potential offenders.
*Long-Term Policy Recommendations:*
1. National Anti-Corruption Education Campaign: A nationwide anti-corruption education campaign should be launched to raise awareness about the negative impacts of corruption and promote a culture of integrity and accountability. This campaign would target all segments of society, including schools, universities, the media, and civil society organizations. Educational materials and programs should be developed, utilizing various media platforms, including social media, to disseminate anti-corruption messages.
2. The judiciary should be strengthened by enhancing the independence, capacity, and integrity of judges and judicial staff. This will involve providing adequate training, improving working conditions, and ensuring fair compensation. Mechanisms should also be established to monitor judicial conduct and address complaints of corruption or misconduct. This will ensure that corruption cases are handled fairly and impartially, thus upholding the rule of law and deterring future acts of corruption.
3. International Cooperation and Asset Recovery: Nigeria should strengthen international cooperation to combat cross-border corruption and illicit financial flows. This will involve collaborating with other countries to share information, track and recover stolen assets, and prosecute corrupt officials who flee abroad. Nigeria should actively participate in international anticorruption initiatives, negotiate bilateral and multilateral agreements, and strengthen cooperation with international law enforcement agencies and financial intelligence units.
These comprehensive policy recommendations, if implemented with determination and sustained commitment, can create a new paradigm of transparency, accountability, and integrity in Nigeria.
*Conclusion*
Nigeria stands at a pivotal juncture, confronting a series of formidable challenges that threaten to derail its progress and undermine its potential.
The nation is grappling with a debilitating economic crisis, characterized by soaring inflation, a weakened currency, and a cost-of-living crisis that has left millions of its citizens struggling to meet their basic needs.
The spectre of insecurity looms large, fuelled by insurgency, banditry, and communal conflicts, resulting in widespread displacement, loss of life, and economic disruption.
The scourge of corruption, deeply entrenched in the fabric of society, continues to erode public trust, hinder development, and exacerbate inequality.
However, while the challenges facing Nigeria are undeniably immense, they are not insurmountable.
The policy prescriptions outlined in this document offer a comprehensive roadmap for addressing these interconnected issues and charting a course towards a brighter future.
In the short term, immediate relief measures such as fiscal consolidation, targeted social safety nets, and streamlined regulations can provide much-needed respite to struggling citizens and businesses.
Medium-term strategies, including tax reforms, infrastructure investment, and economic diversification, can lay the foundation for sustainable growth and development.
In the long term, a focus on institutional strengthening, education reform, and a commitment to green growth can create a more resilient and equitable society, ensuring that the benefits of economic progress are shared by all.
The successful implementation of these policies, however, will require more than just sound economic and political strategies.
It demands a fundamental shift in mindset, a renewed commitment to the values of transparency, accountability, and good governance at all levels of society.
It necessitates a focus on human capital development, empowering the youth with the skills and knowledge they need to drive innovation and economic growth.
It calls for a united front against corruption, ensuring that resources are utilized for the benefit of all Nigerians, not just a privileged few.
Nigeria’s future hinges on its ability to navigate this critical juncture.
The path forward will undoubtedly be fraught with challenges, but with unwavering determination, collaborative effort, and a shared vision for a better future, Nigeria can overcome its current difficulties and emerge as a beacon of hope and prosperity.
The time for action is now. The destiny of Nigeria lies not in the hands of fate, but in the hands of its people.
Let us rise to the occasion, embrace the challenges, and work together to build a nation that is truly worthy of its vast potential.
To accomplish this, leadership is critical. Nigeria needs leadership with vision, prudence, and tenacity; a leadership that can muster the political will to act, the will to walk the talk, and the will to deliver.
Such leadership must also possess the virtue of being accountable and responsive to the yearnings of citizens.
The flip side of leadership with vision, prudence, and tenacity without being responsive and accountable is that it can be autocratic.
To acquire this kind of leadership, we should be prepared to re-calibrate our leadership recruitment process to recognize and prioritize competence, character, and courage of conviction.
Signed:
1. Alkasum Abba
2. Fatima Akilu
3. Usman Bugaje
4. Jibrin Ibrahim
5. Abubakr Siddique Mohammed
6. Clement Nwankwo
7. Ene Obi
8. John Odah
9. Uche Onyeagocha
10. Muhammad Kabir Salihu
11. Kole Shetima
12. Y.Z. Yau
By Ehichioya Ezomon
Robert Frost (1874-1963), an American poet known for his realistic depictions of rural life settings, said that: “Home is the place where, when you have to go there, they have to take you in. But that’s not what a political party is. It does not exist to love you or to keep you or to serve as the one true faith. It’s not family or religion. Parties exist to win elections.”
Exactly what the parties in the September 21, 2024, governorship election in Edo State aim to achieve: Not to love even their members and supporters, but to win the election by whatever means possible, even if they’ve to break the laws, regulations and guidelines for the conduct of the franchise, and break some heads and limbs in the process.
The high stake of the election has caused a precarious security situation in the state. And with the flaming campaign by the leading parties – the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the main opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) – getting to crescendo, the Oba of Benin, Ewuare II, has decided to step in, traditionally, to avert any untoward happenings across the land.
To underscore the gravity of the moment – and the commitment to maintain peace and harmony during the poll – the Omo N’Oba has called for a traditional ritual, known as “Bisusu,” to safeguard the state from potential calamities. The Esere of Benin, Chief S. O. Obamwonyi, stated this on September 11, on behalf of the Oba.
The ritual – intended to “ward off evil from our land, especially before, during, and after the forthcoming gubernatorial election in our dear state” – would be conducted immediately by all traditional leaders, including Chiefs, Enigie (Benin Dukes), Igie-Ohen (traditional priests), and Edionwere (village heads), “using traditional items associated with the ceremony.”
Since the return of democracy in Nigeria in 1999, the Edo PDP and APC have rotated the governance of the “Heart Beat of The Nation” for technically 12 years apiece. That’s why the prize is higher in 2024 for both parties headed by incumbent Governor Godwin Obaseki and former Governor Adams Oshiomhole, respectively.
Hence all eyes are on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) – and the Police – to ensure a “free, fair and credible election,” as the commission’s chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, promised on August 10, during a mock accreditation and uploading of the results in Benin City.
Either in general or off-cycle elections, the INEC has unable to apply the rules to checkmate parties and candidates, who knowingly break the laws, regulations and guidelines that govern elections, with the INEC and Mr Yakubu coming under harsh criticisms, and allegations of connivance with politicians to throw poll results, especially in the February and March 2023 General Election.
The Edo governorship poll comes on the back of revelation by Athena Centre for Policy and Leadership of massive over-voting and inflation of votes allegedly committed in three off-cycle elections in Bayelsa, Imo, and Kogi states on November 11, 2023. The votes were reportedly inflated by hundreds of thousands above the accredited number of voters, with the INEC declaring the losing party as the winner in Kogi.
Head of Athena Centre and former Minister of Aviation, Chief Osita Chidoka, said the scanning and review of the data in the BVAS machines used for the poll – matched against the results declared by the INEC – showed hundreds of thousands of over-voting and inflated votes for the winning APC in Imo and Kogi, and also in Bayelsa, where the party lost to the winning PDP.
On September 10 – precisely 11 days to Election Day – Prof. Yakubu inspected the INEC local government offices, and monitored a mock accreditation and uploading of the results at two polling units in Oredo and Ikpoba-Okha local government areas of Edo State, to test-run the integrity of the systems, as a routine activity on the eve of a major off-season poll.
Promising a free, fair and credible election, Yakubu noted that the INEC isn’t a political party, adding, “The responsibility of choosing the next governor for Edo is entirely in the hands of Edo voters. Our appeal to all registered voters in Edo is to come out to vote for the party of their choice and the candidate of their choice. The commission will ensure the protection of the integrity of the process and uphold the choice made by the electorate.” The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) first reported the exercise.
In another ritual that’s literally on the electoral calendar since 2014, the National Peace Committee (NPC), on September 12, witnessed a Peace Accord signed by 17 of 18 parties fielding candidates for Saturday’s election.
The PDP didn’t sign the peace deal, with the Edo chapter chairman, Dr Anthony Aziegbemi, accompanied by the party’s candidate, Dr Asue Ighodalo, telling newsmen prior that they won’t sign the accord “because 10 members of our party are currently detained by the Police in Abuja.”
“We are here to register our protest before the peace committee, and to say that the PDP will not sign a peace accord when 10 of our members have been arrested and detained by the Police in Abuja. We will not allow a biased IGP (Inspector-General of Police), who is not from Edo State, to determine the outcome of this election. We demand the immediate recall of any external policemen currently marauding the state,” Aziegbemi said, as reported by Vanguard on September 12.
Recall that Governor Obaseki – speaking for the PDP on September 11 – told visiting members of the NPC that the party might not sign the peace accord due to alleged detention of 10 PDP members in Abuja by the Police, which, as the agency responsible for enforcing the accord, “have shown, through their actions, that they are acting in the interest of the APC, and waging war against the PDP.”
“Tell me sir (referring to retired Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar, chairman of the Peace Committee), how can we sign a peace accord in this situation? Clearly, what they are saying is that it’s going to be a violent election and that they are going to use the forces of coercion and intimidation to win elections in Edo, whether we like it or not. That is the message,” Obaseki said.
“Now that the IGP (Kayode Egbetokun) is in town, we say until everybody arrested is brought back to Edo and be tried here in Edo for whatever offences they have committed, we have no confidence that the police will protect us in Edo State during the governorship election,” Obaseki added.
But IGP Egbetokun, denying knowledge of PDP members being arrested and detained, debunked the allegation of bias against the Police under his leadership. At the INEC stakeholders’ meeting in Benin City on September 11, he said, “I am aware that individuals, who committed crimes and political violence in the state, have been arrested.”
In response to Dr Aziegbemi’s comments that “after the unfortunate incident at the airport (the July 18, 2024, attempted assassination of the APC candidate, Senator Monday Okpebholo, and killing of Okpebholo’s police detail, Inspector Akor Onu, in the process), all hell was let loose,” and that the “police have been so biased under this IG,” Egbetokun said: “You accuse the IG of being partisan because I am bent on unraveling the killing of a police officer. If you hold the opinion that the IG is partisan for going after the killer(s) of the policeman, I think you will remain with that opinion forever.”
The APC had announced a pull-out from the accord a few hours to the ceremony – on the grounds of alleged Police delay or refusal to arrest and prosecute those involved in the killing of Okpebholo’s police orderly during the attempted assassination of the Senator – but rescinded the withdrawal notice, and appended the accord.
Acting Edo chapter chairman of the APC, Emperor Jarrett and the party’s candidate, Mr Okpebholo, said they retracted their decision and signed the document because of “our respect for the rule of law, (and) the credibility of the National Peace Committee, headed by General Abdulsalami Abubakar, (Retd), and Bishop Hassan Kukah.”
Tenebe added: “One of our demands was that those who attacked our candidate’s convoy and killed his police detail should be declared wanted and arrested. The Police have promised that they will be apprehended. And it will also not be proper for us not to come because the chairman of the committee, Gen. Abubakar Abdulsalami, is an elder statesman.”
Accusing Obaseki of harbouring the alleged suspects in the government house, Tenebe said, “this failure of the police has emboldened the governor and PDP to attack members of the APC “at rally grounds and in their private business premises ceaselessly,” adding that Obaseki, having allegedly made inflammatory statements – including that, “Nigeria will burn if INEC fails to declare the PDP candidate, Asue Ighodalo, as the winner of the September 21, 2024 gubernatorial election” – has “underminined his position as the Chief Security Officer of the State.”
At the peace meeting, the Convener of the NPC and Bishop of the Sokoto Catholic Archdiocese, Dr Matthew Kukah, noting the committee’s supports forthe INEC to ensure a peaceful election, charged the candidates to see peace as a foundation for a credible election, and urged Nigerians to be thankful for our country, as some other African countries are in crisis because of unresolved political issues.
“Let us thank God that we have the opportunity in Nigeria to stretch our hands in search of justice,” Kukah said. “I am happy that Nigerians have confidence in the electoral process. The worst election is remedied by another election,” urging Edo people to go out and cast their votes, as they count themselves lucky “having produced top politicians in Nigeria.”
In his welcome remarks, the NPC Chairman, Gen. Abubakar, said the ceremony was a commitment to upholding the peace, unity, and democratic values of the nation, stating that since formation in 2014, the committee had worked to foster an environment for Nigerians to exercise their right to vote without fear of violence or intimidation.
Appealing to the candidates, parties and their supporters to remember that peace is the foundation upon which progress and development is built and established, Abubakar said “without it, none of the promises made to the people of Edo state can be fulfilled,” adding, “I encourage everyone to uphold this commitment beyond the elections and accept the outcome of the election.”
The INEC chairman, Prof. Yakubu, who gave the assurance that the commission would continue to play its part in line with the electoral laws, thanked the Peace Committee “for bringing the political parties and their candidates together to agree to a peaceful election.”
The IGP, Egbetokun, stating that the police would collaborate with other security agencies to support the INEC in conducting the election, promised that, “We will remain impartial, professional and vigilant while providing a level-playing ground for political parties and their candidates.”
Governor Obaseki, represented by the Secretary to the State Government (SSG), Mr Joseph Eboigbe, expressing concerns over the police continued detention of 10 PDP members in Abuja, pledged the safety of all stakeholders during and after the September 21 election.
The peace accord is particularly germane, as the campaign for the governorship has assumed a do-or-die affair, witnessing unbridled incendiary and inciting rhetoric; personal insults and mockery; and thuggery, resulting in destruction of campaign offices and materials, and attacks on opposing party members, including Okpebholo.
In preparation for the election, in which 35,000 police officers, and additional 8,000 personnel from sister security agencies are deployed, IGP Egbetokun has suspended the activities of quasi-security organisations, including the ESSN and others set up by the state government, to check insecurity.
At the INEC stakeholders’ meeting in Benin City, Egbetokun said those security outfits “remain suspended,” as “they have no role to play on the day of election.” He also announced the withdrawal of security aides attached to VIPs, to ensure neutrality and security.
It’s doubtful if the spate of attacks will abate without stern, and quick actions by the Police against the marauding political thugs, who may be rehearsing for the final showdown to storm rival campaign rallies, and/or ambush the rallygoers, and leave a trail of bloodshed and destruction.
The armed men – who waylaid the joint convoy of Okpebholo and the court-reinstated impeached Edo State Deputy Governor Philip Shaibu, as they left the Benin airport on arrival from Abuja – are perhaps still on the loose, even as the shooting incident reportedly occurred in the “presence” of then-Edo State Commissioner of Police, Funsho Adegboye.
Mr Adegboye’s at the airport in a yet-to-be-clear circumstance: While the APC claims the CP was there to effect the order of an Abuja Federal High Court, to provide security details to Comrade Shaibu, who’s reinstated by the court; the PDP argues that Adegboye’s at the airport to serve Shaibu copies of a stay of execution, and appeal against his return to his post.
Baffling, though, is that Adegboye – a possible eyewitness to the armed attack on Okpebholo and Shaibu’s convoy, and the killing and injuries therefrom – was unable to show diligent investigation, arrest and prosecution of the sponsors and attackers of the deadly assault on political opponents.
Unless there’re deliberate efforts to cover up, and shield the perpetrators, the new Police Commissioner for Edo State, CP Nemi Edwin-Iwo – who, until he resumed in Benin City on August 13, 2024, was the Commissioner of Police in charge of Intelligence at the Force Intelligence Department, Force Headquarters, Abuja – may deploy his expertise to unravel the brains behind the attempted murder of Okpebholo (and even Shaibu), and the upsurge of violence in the state.
The PDP and APC have traded counter-allegations about who’s responsible for the series of intimidation and attacks on their members, supporters and party structures. While the PDP accuses the APC of boasting of, and deploying “federal might” via the Police, to hunt down its members; the APC alleges that Governor Obaseki and the PDP have enlisted political thugs and the state-owned Edo State Security Network (ESSN), to attack its members and disrupt its campaigns.
While the PDP and APC have also levelled accusations of scheming to rig each other out of victory – by sowing police and military uniforms, to camouflage, and aid rigging on the day of election – the PDP has alleged that the Edo State Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC), Mr Anugbum Onuoha, and CP Edwin-Iwo, are close associates of former Rivers State Governor and Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, Chief Nyesom Wike, with Aziegbemi noting that the PDP sees the officials’ close links with Wike “as a recipe for disaster,” as “they are wont to do his bidding before, during and after the election.”
The September 21 Edo governorship election deserves a free, fair, transparent, credible, and an acceptable outcome. The responsibility for achieving such an outcome rests with the INEC, which should dutifully discharge the onerous task to acquit itself and shake off the stigma of an ineffectual, inefficient, and a collaborative and conniving electoral umpire! The INEC should deliver substantially in favour of the majority, rather than tip the scale for the minority.
It’s hoped that all stakeholders play by and adhere to the laws, regulations and guidelines for the poll conduct, in order to arrive at a conclusive end – even through the arbiter of the election petitions tribunals – without breaking more heads and limbs.
Mr Ezomon, Journalist and Media Consultant, writes from Lagos, Nigeria
The year was 2006. President Olusegun Obasanjo was preparing to leave office for the final time. He had worked tirelessly to build Nigeria’s foreign reserves from its lows of $5 billion in 1999 to about $42 billion in 2006.
This was despite crude oil selling for an average of $46 per barrel during his administration. But there was something that kept weighing the Nigerian Naira down. Even with $42 billion in foreign reserves, Obasanjo’s administration was facing heavy criticism and pressure from all corners because of this heavy burden.
You see, this burden weighed a whopping $36 billion. Yeah, that was how much Nigeria owed in external debt at the time. Most of that amount was owed to the Paris Club, a group of major creditor countries that included the United States, United Kingdom, France, and some other Western countries.
Then came April 2006 and Obasanjo said, quote, Nigeria will not owe anybody in the Paris Club one cub. A few days after this bold declaration, there was this headline from the New York Times saying, quote, Nigeria pays off its big debt, sign of an economic rebound. Baba had done it.
Before this huge announcement was made, the President Olusegun Obasanjo’s administration had been engaged in discussions with the Paris Club on this Nigeria’s debt burden. Those discussions yielded results when, in 2005, the Paris Club proposed an unprecedented debt buyback at a discount. They agreed to a 60% discount on Nigeria’s debt that would cancel all of Nigeria’s debt to them if Nigeria could come up with a cash payment of roughly $12 billion, meaning the Nigerian government only needed to pay $12 billion of the 30 they owed.
Now, with $18 billion being written off then, Obasanjo’s administration was able to pay the balance of $12 billion, and from there, Nigeria became debt-free, at least for the time being. This helped stabilize the value of the Naira at the time, and with crude oil prices up during this time, the Nigerian economy grew rapidly to the top spot in Africa, a growth that continued during the administration of Yardwa through to that of Goodluck Jonathan. Then 2015 happened, and Nigeria’s economy became unrecognizable.
Now, to show you exactly how bad the situation is, Nigeria is reportedly using almost all of its revenue to service debt. But how did we get here? Come with me, and I’ll show you. Nigeria’s debt profile.
7.6 trillion Naira in domestic debt. 7.22 billion dollars. The country’s debt service cost in the first quarter of this year was 1.94 trillion Naira.
The Nigerian government currently owes a total of $91 billion. That is both domestic and foreign debt. Of that amount, $42 billion is said to be foreign.
Now, according to Bloomberg, Nigeria spent 80% of its revenue on debt servicing in the first 11 months of 2022. The World Bank placed that figure at around 96% for the entire year of 2022. But you know what’s more worrying? Spending 96% of your revenue to pay debt means you’re borrowing almost 100% of your annual budget.
This is scary because records show that it is getting worse and not better. Between 1999 and 2021, local and external federal government borrowings jumped from 3.55 trillion Naira to 26.91 trillion Naira, an increase of 658%. Between June 2015 to December 2020, Buhari borrowed 7.6 trillion Naira.
President Mohamed Buhari increased Nigerians’ debt from $7.3 billion in 2015 to $28.57 billion as of December 2020. This caused the country’s exchange rate to move from 197 Naira to the dollar in 2015 to 381 Naira at the end of December 2020. We are talking about 1% increase in Nigerians’ debt by 173.2% in just 6 years.
In comparison, President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration met Nigeria’s debt profile at 6.17 trillion Naira in 2011. According to a report by The Cable, local debt amounted to 5.62 trillion Naira while foreign debt stood at $3.5 billion. The exchange rate at the time was 156.7 Naira to $1.
In 2014, towards the end of Jonathan’s administration, external debt was $6.45 billion. Domestic debt rose to 7.9 trillion Naira while the Naira fell slightly to 158.6 Naira to $1. After the elections, however, everything changed.
By the end of 2015, Nigerians’ foreign debt jumped to $7.3 billion while domestic debt increased by 8.4 trillion Naira. The Naira crashed to $197 per dollar. Not even a year in office yet, Buhari immediately gave Nigerians a clue of how his government planned to carry its affairs.
So far, Buhari is the country’s biggest borrower, increasing public debt by more than 173%. Oh, hang on, there is Tinubu now, whose administration has been acting like a bunch of 5-year-old kids with happy Christmas money in a candy shop. According to the Vanguard, the federal government under Tinubu borrowed 20.1 trillion Naira from domestic investors in the first year of President Tinubu’s administration alone.
But why are they borrowing this much? What are they doing with all this money? Now, the most apparent reason for Nigeria’s rising debt profile is the rising cost of governance. This is simply put, any cost associated with the running of government. This includes recurrent and capital expenditure.
While recurrent expenditure talks about the amount of money the government spends on overhead and personnel costs, capital expenditure on the other hand talks about government expenditure in providing infrastructural facilities. The problem with the Nigerian situation is that the government is borrowing a whole lot of money to spend on overhead and personnel costs. As a result, infrastructure is in decay while the people in power focus on buying yachts, jets, SUVs, and building mansions.
The point I’m trying to make here is, spending billions of borrowed funds to give public officials lavish lifestyles has reduced the amount of money available for capital expenditures. This means roads don’t get built, hospitals are poorly managed, some have no lights, and others have collapsing structures. Let’s not even get into the education sector.
There is literally no money to improve our power infrastructures leading to the national power grid collapsing every four market days. The public transportation system is a mess. No rail lines in major cities to help solve the public transportation crisis.
Now, all of this put together have led to a fall in investments. Companies are running away which in turn has led to a reduction in the level of employment which ultimately led to the stagnation of our economic growth. Also to add, borrowing a ton of money without restraint is bad.
Yeah, pretty bad. But how? You might ask. Well, more debt means a weaker Naira.
The weaker Naira means imports of goods are more expensive and exports bring in little value as a result. The weaker Naira also means crazy levels of inflation like we are witnessing right now. Food items are very expensive and people are no longer able to afford household items.
There is also the debt servicing we talked about earlier. Nigeria is currently using 96% of its revenue to service debt. Imagine working for 30 days and you are paid 500,000 Naira but then you have to use 408,000 Naira from that amount to pay your debt.
How do you survive on 20,000 Naira for another 30 days? It means you will have to borrow again and again and so the cycle continues. But is there a fix for this mess we are in? When the current president of Argentina was sworn in back in December 2023, his country’s situation was worse than Nigeria’s. But what did he do? Well, he took measures to reduce government spending.
It’s not a magic trick. All he did was cut down on the size of government, block the stealing of government funds, attract foreign direct investment through tax holidays, and improve the ease of doing business in the country. If you’re broke, you don’t need to go on a spending spree to build a mansion and buy a jet and a yacht and whatnot.
In all honesty, if Nigeria were a company, it would have filed for bankruptcy by now and maybe all the managers and directors could be behind bars. You see, when the last administration was under a lot of pressure to get money to run its operations, they went to the central bank and turned it into a printing press. With every Naira they printed, the Naira lost more value, inflation soared, and your savings became worth less than they used to be.
The result of that recklessness is still being felt today, with the current administration even worsening the situation with its borrowing and spending. Like I said earlier, the Tenibo administration has been acting like a bunch of five-year-old kids with happy Christmas money in a candy shop. They know they didn’t work to end this money they’re spending because of course these are loans.
However, they’re hell-bent on spending it all, but not on infrastructures, not on capital investment to help prop up the Nigerian economy. They tell you that the government is taking some loans to run its operations, then you turn on the news only to see that one of these operations is a VP residence that cost the country 21 billion Naira of money it doesn’t have. Imagine borrowing 21 billion Naira to build a mansion for your vice president at a time like this.
Are you trying to show to the people you borrowed this money from that all is well back at home? Because Nigerians know that all is not well here. So, who exactly are you trying to impress? You see, African leaders are the only crop of people that travel to western countries with about 200 delegates, spend millions of dollars in five-star hotels to attend meetings with their creditors whom they have gone to beg for money. My question to Nigerian leaders is, are you not ashamed of yourselves? When you jump on private jets to take you around the world, do you by any chance meet politicians from other countries with good economies? If you do, can you tell us what your conversation with them is usually like? Do you even talk to them? Because, make it make sense here.
How do you introduce yourself to the British Prime Minister, for example, when you go to one of these your meetings? Tell me, do you say, hey, I’m a senator from Nigeria. Yeah, I’m one of the folks who sing a song of allegiance to the president I should be holding accountable. I also try to warn people in my constituency who, by the way, voted for me against all forms of protest against the hunger they are currently enduring.
Or, do you say, I’m minister of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Yes, we know the economy is terrible right now, but Nigerians just need to sacrifice while we, the people elected to serve them, live our best lives. And to the governors, how do you live with yourselves? When you look into the mirror, who do you see? A father? A servant of the people? Or a wicked politician who doesn’t care about the plight of his people? For those who want to make Nigerians believe that economic hardship is a trial from God, how do you live with yourself? And to my fellow Nigerians, you need to know the truth.
Our economy is bad because of the terrible decisions of our leaders. When you take on loans as an individual, for example, and use those monies to buy fancy clothes to wear and oppress your neighbours, you’d better have a plan on how you’re going to pay back that money. Because when the time for repayment comes and you have not generated any income to pay back, there’s bound to be trouble.
That is the trouble we are in today. Most of the loans we are taking are being used to finance recurrent expenditures. Only a tiny fraction is used for capital expenditure.
Instead of investing in things that can yield results for the economy and help boost our GDP, our politicians are busy sharing money as palliatives. A year ago in 2023, Tinubu wrote to the National Assembly seeking 500 billion Naira for palliatives. July 2024, the federal government is sending 740 rice trucks to states.
How many Nigerians will even see these trucks? Not to talk of getting a grain of rice from these bags.
Nigeria’s struggle with oil theft and pipeline vandalism is akin to battling a hydra—a beast whose heads multiply every time one is severed. These challenges have, for decades, sunk their fangs into the country’s economic lifeblood, draining vitality and potential. Yet, Nigeria’s plight is not an isolated one. Like a plague, the twin evils of oil theft and pipeline sabotage have infected several other nations, each grappling with its own vicious cycle of loss and recovery.
In recent years, the audacity and scale of oil theft in Nigeria have grown to monstrous proportions. What once seemed like a manageable nuisance has mutated into a crisis, revealing the state’s weakening ability to protect its most valuable resource. The unchecked plundering of Nigeria’s oil wealth is not just a gash in the country’s economy—it is a haemorrhage that threatens to bleed the nation dry. As this shadow war rages on, Nigeria’s efforts mirror the struggles of other oil-rich nations ensnared by similar challenges.
A Global Tangle: Oil Theft Across the World
Nigeria’s struggles might feel uniquely overwhelming, but the curse of oil theft has spread its tendrils far beyond its borders. Mexico battles its own demons with huachicoleo, the illegal tapping of pipelines driven by organised crime. Like thieves in the night, these criminal cartels slither through the shadows, leaving a trail of loss and environmental destruction in their wake. Mexico has attempted to cut off this serpent’s head with military crackdowns, shutting down pipelines and transporting fuel by tankers, but corruption remains the venom that weakens the system, rendering success elusive.
Meanwhile, in Venezuela, where oil is both a curse and a salvation, theft is rampant amid the ruins of an economic collapse. Like vultures circling a dying beast, smugglers and criminals pick apart what remains of the nation’s oil infrastructure. The government’s grip is weak, hobbled by political unrest and financial instability, and so the bleeding continues. Similarly, Iraq, whose oil fields stretch across conflict zones like patches of fertile land in a desert of strife, has endured years of sabotage. Militant groups prey on its vulnerabilities, siphoning off oil and wrecking infrastructure as they wage their own wars.
In Libya, the fight for oil is a tug of war, with armed groups seizing control of facilities as they scramble for dominance. Like waves crashing against a rocky shore, the Libyan government’s attempts to regain control are persistent yet often ineffective, splintered by internal divisions. Further afield in Colombia, guerrilla groups like the National Liberation Army (ELN) treat oil pipelines as battlegrounds, attacking infrastructure to fund their insurgency. The Colombian government responds with force, but the battle, like many others, rages on.
Even Russia and Indonesia, with their sprawling landscapes and vast oil reserves, find themselves ensnared by this global malaise. Criminal gangs in Russia’s remote Siberian wilderness tap pipelines with impunity, while in Indonesia, the lush forests conceal a web of illegal siphoning operations. Both nations, like others, have tried to tighten the noose with surveillance and security patrols, but corruption and the vastness of their territories make control difficult.
Nigeria’s Battle: From Crisis to Recovery
Back in Nigeria, the war on oil theft has followed a winding, tortuous path, with victories fleeting and losses monumental. During the Buhari administration, the government initially refused to continue the contract with Tompolo’s Tantita Security outfit, a move that proved disastrous. This decision was akin to abandoning a fort in the midst of an invasion. Oil theft surged, and production plummeted to a dismal 790,000 barrels per day (bpd). The nation, once a giant in the oil market, found itself limping, crippled by its own vulnerability.
But the story didn’t end there. Realising the gravity of the situation, the Buhari administration had a change of heart and re-awarded the contract to Tantita. Like a knight returning to a besieged castle, Tompolo’s team rode back into the fray, spearheading a recovery. Oil production climbed to 1.3 million bpd, marking the beginning of Nigeria’s ascent from the abyss.
This resurgence under the Mele Kyari leadership of Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPC Ltd) was further bolstered in year 2022 by a new weapon in Nigeria’s arsenal: technology. The deployment of a sophisticated Digital Intelligence Platform became the country’s eye in the sky, monitoring the labyrinthine Niger Delta region and its web of creeks where much of the illicit activity took place. The platform acted like a spider at the centre of a vast network, sensing disturbances and relaying real-time intelligence to various security agencies. Information flowed seamlessly to the Department of State Services (DSS), National Intelligence Agency (NIA), Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU), Nigerian Police Force, Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), and private security contractors like Tantita and Pipeline Infrastructure Nigeria (PIN).
With all eyes on the creeks, Nigeria’s defences grew stronger, and NNPC Ltd began to regain control of its assets. Production steadily climbed, and as of now, oil output has reached nearly 1.8 million bpd—an improvement that signals hope, though the battle is far from won.
Despite these gains, there remains an unsettling truth: much of the oil being stolen in Nigeria is still not properly documented. Like a hidden illness festering beneath the surface, the full extent of the theft is unknown. The losses are likely far greater than official figures suggest, leaving a gaping wound in the nation’s economy.
Lessons from Global Struggles
Globally, the fight against oil theft and pipeline vandalism is a protracted one. Countries facing similar challenges have tried a range of strategies, from military crackdowns and increased security patrols to advanced surveillance technology and international cooperation. However, Nigeria’s situation remains unique due to the complexity of the Niger Delta region—a tangle of waterways and jungle that provides perfect cover for illicit operations—and the sheer scale of the problem.
For instance, Mexico’s reliance on military interventions has seen limited success, hampered by corruption within the security forces themselves. In Venezuela, the government’s weakened state has left it unable to effectively combat oil theft, while Iraq and Libya struggle to protect their oil resources amid ongoing conflicts. Nigeria, by contrast, has shown that a combination of technology and local knowledge—through partnerships with former militants like Tompolo—can yield results, though sustaining these gains requires constant innovation and stronger governance.
The Road Ahead: Nigeria’s Quest for Stability
Nigeria’s oil production, like a phoenix rising from the ashes, has clawed its way back from the depths. But the journey is far from over. The federal government’s continued reliance on Tompolo’s militants and advanced surveillance technology has yielded success, yet these measures are not without controversy. The question remains: how can Nigeria ensure that this fragile recovery doesn’t unravel?
Crude oil remains the heart that pumps life into Nigeria’s economy, providing up to 80 percent of foreign exchange earnings and nearly 70 percent of the annual budget. But like any heart under constant strain, it needs care and protection. The federal government, in collaboration with state governments, must continue to tackle the issue of oil theft with a renewed sense of urgency, drawing lessons from global counterparts while refining its own approach. Failure is not an option—the stakes are simply too high.
An Economy Haemorrhaging: The Costs of Inaction
The scale of Nigeria’s losses to oil theft is staggering, yet it may be only the tip of the iceberg. National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu recently disclosed that the country loses approximately 400,000 bpd to oil theft. Former Minister of State for Petroleum Resources Timipre Sylva estimated that Nigeria lost at least 700,000 bpd to thieves in 2022 alone—a situation unparalleled by other oil-producing nations like Venezuela, Iraq, Mexico, and Malaysia. And yet, many of these stolen barrels remain undocumented, slipping through the cracks like grains of sand in an hourglass. The full scale of the problem is likely far greater than official records indicate, leaving a yawning chasm in the nation’s finances.
In October last year, the Nigerian Senate reported that the country lost N2.3 trillion to crude oil theft. But this figure, alarming as it is, is likely a conservative estimate. The shadow economy of oil theft operates in the dark, beyond the reach of formal accounting, and its impact is felt far and wide.
As Nigeria continues to bleed, the call for a decisive and comprehensive solution grows louder. If the country can regain full control of its oil resources, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPC Ltd) could potentially produce no less than 3 million (three million) barrels per day, breathing new life into the economy. Such an achievement would be nothing short of transformative, a beacon of hope in a landscape scarred by years of theft and loss. With the right mix of vigilance, innovation, and resolve, Nigeria can emerge victorious, restoring stability and prosperity to its citizens.
Lemmy Ughegbe, Ph.D. writes from Abuja
lemmyughegbeofficial@gmail.com
+2348069716645
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