By Ehichioya Ezomon

Robert Frost (1874-1963), an American poet known for his realistic depictions of rural life settings, said that: “Home is the place where, when you have to go there, they have to take you in. But that’s not what a political party is. It does not exist to love you or to keep you or to serve as the one true faith. It’s not family or religion. Parties exist to win elections.”
Exactly what the parties in the September 21, 2024, governorship election in Edo State aim to achieve: Not to love even their members and supporters, but to win the election by whatever means possible, even if they’ve to break the laws, regulations and guidelines for the conduct of the franchise, and break some heads and limbs in the process.
The high stake of the election has caused a precarious security situation in the state. And with the flaming campaign by the leading parties – the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the main opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) – getting to crescendo, the Oba of Benin, Ewuare II, has decided to step in, traditionally, to avert any untoward happenings across the land.
To underscore the gravity of the moment – and the commitment to maintain peace and harmony during the poll – the Omo N’Oba has called for a traditional ritual, known as “Bisusu,” to safeguard the state from potential calamities. The Esere of Benin, Chief S. O. Obamwonyi, stated this on September 11, on behalf of the Oba.
The ritual – intended to “ward off evil from our land, especially before, during, and after the forthcoming gubernatorial election in our dear state” – would be conducted immediately by all traditional leaders, including Chiefs, Enigie (Benin Dukes), Igie-Ohen (traditional priests), and Edionwere (village heads), “using traditional items associated with the ceremony.”
Since the return of democracy in Nigeria in 1999, the Edo PDP and APC have rotated the governance of the “Heart Beat of The Nation” for technically 12 years apiece. That’s why the prize is higher in 2024 for both parties headed by incumbent Governor Godwin Obaseki and former Governor Adams Oshiomhole, respectively. 
Hence all eyes are on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) – and the Police – to ensure a “free, fair and credible election,” as the commission’s chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, promised on August 10, during a mock accreditation and uploading of the results in Benin City.
Either in general or off-cycle elections, the INEC has unable to apply the rules to checkmate parties and candidates, who knowingly break the laws, regulations and guidelines that govern elections, with the INEC and Mr Yakubu coming under harsh criticisms, and allegations of connivance with politicians to throw poll results, especially in the February and March 2023 General Election.
The Edo governorship poll comes on the back of revelation by Athena Centre for Policy and Leadership of massive over-voting and inflation of votes allegedly committed in three off-cycle elections in Bayelsa, Imo, and Kogi states on November 11, 2023. The votes were reportedly inflated by hundreds of thousands above the accredited number of voters, with the INEC declaring the losing party as the winner in Kogi.
Head of Athena Centre and former Minister of Aviation, Chief Osita Chidoka, said the scanning and review of the data in the BVAS machines used for the poll – matched against the results declared by the INEC – showed hundreds of thousands of over-voting and inflated votes for the winning APC in Imo and Kogi, and also in Bayelsa, where the party lost to the winning PDP.
On September 10 – precisely 11 days to Election Day – Prof. Yakubu inspected the INEC local government offices, and monitored a mock accreditation and uploading of the results at two polling units in Oredo and Ikpoba-Okha local government areas of Edo State, to test-run the integrity of the systems, as a routine activity on the eve of a major off-season poll.
Promising a free, fair and credible election, Yakubu noted that the INEC isn’t a political party, adding, “The responsibility of choosing the next governor for Edo is entirely in the hands of Edo voters. Our appeal to all registered voters in Edo is to come out to vote for the party of their choice and the candidate of their choice. The commission will ensure the protection of the integrity of the process and uphold the choice made by the electorate.” The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) first reported the exercise.
In another ritual that’s literally on the electoral calendar since 2014, the National Peace Committee (NPC), on September 12, witnessed a Peace Accord signed by 17 of 18 parties fielding candidates for Saturday’s election. 
The PDP didn’t sign the peace deal, with the Edo chapter chairman, Dr Anthony Aziegbemi, accompanied by the party’s candidate, Dr Asue Ighodalo, telling newsmen prior that they won’t sign the accord “because 10 members of our party are currently detained by the Police in Abuja.”
“We are here to register our protest before the peace committee, and to say that the PDP will not sign a peace accord when 10 of our members have been arrested and detained by the Police in Abuja. We will not allow a biased IGP (Inspector-General of Police), who is not from Edo State, to determine the outcome of this election. We demand the immediate recall of any external policemen currently marauding the state,” Aziegbemi said, as reported by Vanguard on September 12.
Recall that Governor Obaseki – speaking for the PDP on September 11 – told visiting members of the NPC that the party might not sign the peace accord due to alleged detention of 10 PDP members in Abuja by the Police, which, as the agency responsible for enforcing the accord, “have shown, through their actions, that they are acting in the interest of the APC, and waging war against the PDP.”
“Tell me sir (referring to retired Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar, chairman of the Peace Committee), how can we sign a peace accord in this situation? Clearly, what they are saying is that it’s going to be a violent election and that they are going to use the forces of coercion and intimidation to win elections in Edo, whether we like it or not. That is the message,” Obaseki said. 
“Now that the IGP (Kayode Egbetokun) is in town, we say until everybody arrested is brought back to Edo and be tried here in Edo for whatever offences they have committed, we have no confidence that the police will protect us in Edo State during the governorship election,” Obaseki added.
But IGP Egbetokun, denying knowledge of PDP members being arrested and detained, debunked the allegation of bias against the Police under his leadership. At the INEC stakeholders’ meeting in Benin City on September 11, he said, “I am aware that individuals, who committed crimes and political violence in the state, have been arrested.”
In response to Dr Aziegbemi’s comments that “after the unfortunate incident at the airport (the July 18, 2024, attempted assassination of the APC candidate, Senator Monday Okpebholo, and killing of Okpebholo’s police detail, Inspector Akor Onu, in the process), all hell was let loose,” and that the “police have been so biased under this IG,” Egbetokun said: “You accuse the IG of being partisan because I am bent on unraveling the killing of a police officer. If you hold the opinion that the IG is partisan for going after the killer(s) of the policeman, I think you will remain with that opinion forever.”
The APC had announced a pull-out from the accord a few hours to the ceremony – on the grounds of alleged Police delay or refusal to arrest and prosecute those involved in the killing of Okpebholo’s police orderly during the attempted assassination of the Senator – but rescinded the withdrawal notice, and appended the accord.
Acting Edo chapter chairman of the APC, Emperor Jarrett and the party’s candidate, Mr Okpebholo, said they retracted their decision and signed the document because of “our respect for the rule of law, (and) the credibility of the National Peace Committee, headed by General Abdulsalami Abubakar, (Retd), and Bishop Hassan Kukah.”
Tenebe added: “One of our demands was that those who attacked our candidate’s convoy and killed his police detail should be declared wanted and arrested. The Police have promised that they will be apprehended. And it will also not be proper for us not to come because the chairman of the committee, Gen. Abubakar Abdulsalami, is an elder statesman.”
Accusing Obaseki of harbouring the alleged suspects in the government house, Tenebe said, “this failure of the police has emboldened the governor and PDP to attack members of the APC “at rally grounds and in their private business premises ceaselessly,” adding that Obaseki, having allegedly made inflammatory statements – including that, “Nigeria will burn if INEC fails to declare the PDP candidate, Asue Ighodalo, as the winner of the September 21, 2024 gubernatorial election” – has “underminined his position as the Chief Security Officer of the State.”
At the peace meeting, the Convener of the NPC and Bishop of the Sokoto Catholic Archdiocese, Dr Matthew Kukah, noting the committee’s supports forthe INEC to ensure a peaceful election, charged the candidates to see peace as a foundation for a credible election, and urged Nigerians to be thankful for our country, as some other African countries are in crisis because of unresolved political issues.
“Let us thank God that we have the opportunity in Nigeria to stretch our hands in search of justice,” Kukah said. “I am happy that Nigerians have confidence in the electoral process. The worst election is remedied by another election,” urging Edo people to go out and cast their votes, as they count themselves lucky “having produced top politicians in Nigeria.”
In his welcome remarks, the NPC Chairman, Gen. Abubakar, said the ceremony was a commitment to upholding the peace, unity, and democratic values of the nation, stating that since formation in 2014, the committee had worked to foster an environment for Nigerians to exercise their right to vote without fear of violence or intimidation.
Appealing to the candidates, parties and their supporters to remember that peace is the foundation upon which progress and development is built and established, Abubakar said “without it, none of the promises made to the people of Edo state can be fulfilled,” adding, “I encourage everyone to uphold this commitment beyond the elections and accept the outcome of the election.”
The INEC chairman, Prof. Yakubu, who gave the assurance that the commission would continue to play its part in line with the electoral laws, thanked the Peace Committee “for bringing the political parties and their candidates together to agree to a peaceful election.”
The IGP, Egbetokun, stating that the police would collaborate with other security agencies to support the INEC in conducting the election, promised that, “We will remain impartial, professional and vigilant while providing a level-playing ground for political parties and their candidates.”
Governor Obaseki, represented by the Secretary to the State Government (SSG), Mr Joseph Eboigbe, expressing concerns over the police continued detention of 10 PDP members in Abuja, pledged the safety of all stakeholders during and after the September 21 election.
The peace accord is particularly germane, as the campaign for the governorship has assumed a do-or-die affair, witnessing unbridled incendiary and inciting rhetoric; personal insults and mockery; and thuggery, resulting in destruction of campaign offices and materials, and attacks on opposing party members, including Okpebholo. 
In preparation for the election, in which 35,000 police officers, and additional 8,000 personnel from sister security agencies are deployed, IGP Egbetokun has suspended the activities of quasi-security organisations, including the ESSN and others set up by the state government, to check insecurity. 
At the INEC stakeholders’ meeting in Benin City, Egbetokun said those security outfits “remain suspended,” as “they have no role to play on the day of election.” He also announced the withdrawal of security aides attached to VIPs, to ensure neutrality and security.
It’s doubtful if the spate of attacks will abate without stern, and quick actions by the Police against the marauding political thugs, who may be rehearsing for the final showdown to storm rival campaign rallies, and/or ambush the rallygoers, and leave a trail of bloodshed and destruction. 
The armed men – who waylaid the joint convoy of Okpebholo and the court-reinstated impeached Edo State Deputy Governor Philip Shaibu, as they left the Benin airport on arrival from Abuja – are perhaps still on the loose, even as the shooting incident reportedly occurred in the “presence” of then-Edo State Commissioner of Police, Funsho Adegboye.
Mr Adegboye’s at the airport in a yet-to-be-clear circumstance: While the APC claims the CP was there to effect the order of an Abuja Federal High Court, to provide security details to Comrade Shaibu, who’s reinstated by the court; the PDP argues that Adegboye’s at the airport to serve Shaibu copies of a stay of execution, and appeal against his return to his post.
Baffling, though, is that Adegboye – a possible eyewitness to the armed attack on Okpebholo and Shaibu’s convoy, and the killing and injuries therefrom – was unable to show diligent investigation, arrest and prosecution of the sponsors and attackers of the deadly assault on political opponents.
Unless there’re deliberate efforts to cover up, and shield the perpetrators, the new Police Commissioner for Edo State, CP Nemi Edwin-Iwo – who, until he resumed in Benin City on August 13, 2024, was the Commissioner of Police in charge of Intelligence at the Force Intelligence Department, Force Headquarters, Abuja – may deploy his expertise to unravel the brains behind the attempted murder of Okpebholo (and even Shaibu), and the upsurge of violence in the state.
The PDP and APC have traded counter-allegations about who’s responsible for the series of intimidation and attacks on their members, supporters and party structures. While the PDP accuses the APC of boasting of, and deploying “federal might” via the Police, to hunt down its members; the APC alleges that Governor Obaseki and the PDP have enlisted political thugs and the state-owned Edo State Security Network (ESSN), to attack its members and disrupt its campaigns. 
While the PDP and APC have also levelled accusations of scheming to rig each other out of victory – by sowing police and military uniforms, to camouflage, and aid rigging on the day of election – the PDP has alleged that the Edo State Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC), Mr Anugbum Onuoha, and CP Edwin-Iwo, are close associates of former Rivers State Governor and Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, Chief Nyesom Wike, with Aziegbemi noting that the PDP sees the officials’ close links with Wike “as a recipe for disaster,” as “they are wont to do his bidding before, during and after the election.”
The September 21 Edo governorship election deserves a free, fair, transparent, credible, and an acceptable outcome. The responsibility for achieving such an outcome rests with the INEC, which should dutifully discharge the onerous task to acquit itself and shake off the stigma of an ineffectual, inefficient, and a collaborative and conniving electoral umpire! The INEC should deliver substantially in favour of the majority, rather than tip the scale for the minority.
It’s hoped that all stakeholders play by and adhere to the laws, regulations and guidelines for the poll conduct, in order to arrive at a conclusive end – even through the arbiter of the election petitions tribunals – without breaking more heads and limbs.

Mr Ezomon, Journalist and Media Consultant, writes from Lagos, Nigeria

The year was 2006. President Olusegun Obasanjo was preparing to leave office for the final time. He had worked tirelessly to build Nigeria’s foreign reserves from its lows of $5 billion in 1999 to about $42 billion in 2006.

This was despite crude oil selling for an average of $46 per barrel during his administration. But there was something that kept weighing the Nigerian Naira down. Even with $42 billion in foreign reserves, Obasanjo’s administration was facing heavy criticism and pressure from all corners because of this heavy burden.

You see, this burden weighed a whopping $36 billion. Yeah, that was how much Nigeria owed in external debt at the time. Most of that amount was owed to the Paris Club, a group of major creditor countries that included the United States, United Kingdom, France, and some other Western countries.

Then came April 2006 and Obasanjo said, quote, Nigeria will not owe anybody in the Paris Club one cub. A few days after this bold declaration, there was this headline from the New York Times saying, quote, Nigeria pays off its big debt, sign of an economic rebound. Baba had done it.

Before this huge announcement was made, the President Olusegun Obasanjo’s administration had been engaged in discussions with the Paris Club on this Nigeria’s debt burden. Those discussions yielded results when, in 2005, the Paris Club proposed an unprecedented debt buyback at a discount. They agreed to a 60% discount on Nigeria’s debt that would cancel all of Nigeria’s debt to them if Nigeria could come up with a cash payment of roughly $12 billion, meaning the Nigerian government only needed to pay $12 billion of the 30 they owed.

Now, with $18 billion being written off then, Obasanjo’s administration was able to pay the balance of $12 billion, and from there, Nigeria became debt-free, at least for the time being. This helped stabilize the value of the Naira at the time, and with crude oil prices up during this time, the Nigerian economy grew rapidly to the top spot in Africa, a growth that continued during the administration of Yardwa through to that of Goodluck Jonathan. Then 2015 happened, and Nigeria’s economy became unrecognizable.

Now, to show you exactly how bad the situation is, Nigeria is reportedly using almost all of its revenue to service debt. But how did we get here? Come with me, and I’ll show you. Nigeria’s debt profile.

7.6 trillion Naira in domestic debt. 7.22 billion dollars. The country’s debt service cost in the first quarter of this year was 1.94 trillion Naira.

The Nigerian government currently owes a total of $91 billion. That is both domestic and foreign debt. Of that amount, $42 billion is said to be foreign.

Now, according to Bloomberg, Nigeria spent 80% of its revenue on debt servicing in the first 11 months of 2022. The World Bank placed that figure at around 96% for the entire year of 2022. But you know what’s more worrying? Spending 96% of your revenue to pay debt means you’re borrowing almost 100% of your annual budget.

This is scary because records show that it is getting worse and not better. Between 1999 and 2021, local and external federal government borrowings jumped from 3.55 trillion Naira to 26.91 trillion Naira, an increase of 658%. Between June 2015 to December 2020, Buhari borrowed 7.6 trillion Naira.

President Mohamed Buhari increased Nigerians’ debt from $7.3 billion in 2015 to $28.57 billion as of December 2020. This caused the country’s exchange rate to move from 197 Naira to the dollar in 2015 to 381 Naira at the end of December 2020. We are talking about 1% increase in Nigerians’ debt by 173.2% in just 6 years.

In comparison, President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration met Nigeria’s debt profile at 6.17 trillion Naira in 2011. According to a report by The Cable, local debt amounted to 5.62 trillion Naira while foreign debt stood at $3.5 billion. The exchange rate at the time was 156.7 Naira to $1.

In 2014, towards the end of Jonathan’s administration, external debt was $6.45 billion. Domestic debt rose to 7.9 trillion Naira while the Naira fell slightly to 158.6 Naira to $1. After the elections, however, everything changed.

By the end of 2015, Nigerians’ foreign debt jumped to $7.3 billion while domestic debt increased by 8.4 trillion Naira. The Naira crashed to $197 per dollar. Not even a year in office yet, Buhari immediately gave Nigerians a clue of how his government planned to carry its affairs.

So far, Buhari is the country’s biggest borrower, increasing public debt by more than 173%. Oh, hang on, there is Tinubu now, whose administration has been acting like a bunch of 5-year-old kids with happy Christmas money in a candy shop. According to the Vanguard, the federal government under Tinubu borrowed 20.1 trillion Naira from domestic investors in the first year of President Tinubu’s administration alone.

But why are they borrowing this much? What are they doing with all this money? Now, the most apparent reason for Nigeria’s rising debt profile is the rising cost of governance. This is simply put, any cost associated with the running of government. This includes recurrent and capital expenditure.

While recurrent expenditure talks about the amount of money the government spends on overhead and personnel costs, capital expenditure on the other hand talks about government expenditure in providing infrastructural facilities. The problem with the Nigerian situation is that the government is borrowing a whole lot of money to spend on overhead and personnel costs. As a result, infrastructure is in decay while the people in power focus on buying yachts, jets, SUVs, and building mansions.

The point I’m trying to make here is, spending billions of borrowed funds to give public officials lavish lifestyles has reduced the amount of money available for capital expenditures. This means roads don’t get built, hospitals are poorly managed, some have no lights, and others have collapsing structures. Let’s not even get into the education sector.

There is literally no money to improve our power infrastructures leading to the national power grid collapsing every four market days. The public transportation system is a mess. No rail lines in major cities to help solve the public transportation crisis.

Now, all of this put together have led to a fall in investments. Companies are running away which in turn has led to a reduction in the level of employment which ultimately led to the stagnation of our economic growth. Also to add, borrowing a ton of money without restraint is bad.

Yeah, pretty bad. But how? You might ask. Well, more debt means a weaker Naira.

The weaker Naira means imports of goods are more expensive and exports bring in little value as a result. The weaker Naira also means crazy levels of inflation like we are witnessing right now. Food items are very expensive and people are no longer able to afford household items.

There is also the debt servicing we talked about earlier. Nigeria is currently using 96% of its revenue to service debt. Imagine working for 30 days and you are paid 500,000 Naira but then you have to use 408,000 Naira from that amount to pay your debt.

How do you survive on 20,000 Naira for another 30 days? It means you will have to borrow again and again and so the cycle continues. But is there a fix for this mess we are in? When the current president of Argentina was sworn in back in December 2023, his country’s situation was worse than Nigeria’s. But what did he do? Well, he took measures to reduce government spending.

It’s not a magic trick. All he did was cut down on the size of government, block the stealing of government funds, attract foreign direct investment through tax holidays, and improve the ease of doing business in the country. If you’re broke, you don’t need to go on a spending spree to build a mansion and buy a jet and a yacht and whatnot.

In all honesty, if Nigeria were a company, it would have filed for bankruptcy by now and maybe all the managers and directors could be behind bars. You see, when the last administration was under a lot of pressure to get money to run its operations, they went to the central bank and turned it into a printing press. With every Naira they printed, the Naira lost more value, inflation soared, and your savings became worth less than they used to be.

The result of that recklessness is still being felt today, with the current administration even worsening the situation with its borrowing and spending. Like I said earlier, the Tenibo administration has been acting like a bunch of five-year-old kids with happy Christmas money in a candy shop. They know they didn’t work to end this money they’re spending because of course these are loans.

However, they’re hell-bent on spending it all, but not on infrastructures, not on capital investment to help prop up the Nigerian economy. They tell you that the government is taking some loans to run its operations, then you turn on the news only to see that one of these operations is a VP residence that cost the country 21 billion Naira of money it doesn’t have. Imagine borrowing 21 billion Naira to build a mansion for your vice president at a time like this.

Are you trying to show to the people you borrowed this money from that all is well back at home? Because Nigerians know that all is not well here. So, who exactly are you trying to impress? You see, African leaders are the only crop of people that travel to western countries with about 200 delegates, spend millions of dollars in five-star hotels to attend meetings with their creditors whom they have gone to beg for money. My question to Nigerian leaders is, are you not ashamed of yourselves? When you jump on private jets to take you around the world, do you by any chance meet politicians from other countries with good economies? If you do, can you tell us what your conversation with them is usually like? Do you even talk to them? Because, make it make sense here.

How do you introduce yourself to the British Prime Minister, for example, when you go to one of these your meetings? Tell me, do you say, hey, I’m a senator from Nigeria. Yeah, I’m one of the folks who sing a song of allegiance to the president I should be holding accountable. I also try to warn people in my constituency who, by the way, voted for me against all forms of protest against the hunger they are currently enduring.

Or, do you say, I’m minister of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Yes, we know the economy is terrible right now, but Nigerians just need to sacrifice while we, the people elected to serve them, live our best lives. And to the governors, how do you live with yourselves? When you look into the mirror, who do you see? A father? A servant of the people? Or a wicked politician who doesn’t care about the plight of his people? For those who want to make Nigerians believe that economic hardship is a trial from God, how do you live with yourself? And to my fellow Nigerians, you need to know the truth.

Our economy is bad because of the terrible decisions of our leaders. When you take on loans as an individual, for example, and use those monies to buy fancy clothes to wear and oppress your neighbours, you’d better have a plan on how you’re going to pay back that money. Because when the time for repayment comes and you have not generated any income to pay back, there’s bound to be trouble.

That is the trouble we are in today. Most of the loans we are taking are being used to finance recurrent expenditures. Only a tiny fraction is used for capital expenditure.

Instead of investing in things that can yield results for the economy and help boost our GDP, our politicians are busy sharing money as palliatives. A year ago in 2023, Tinubu wrote to the National Assembly seeking 500 billion Naira for palliatives. July 2024, the federal government is sending 740 rice trucks to states.

How many Nigerians will even see these trucks? Not to talk of getting a grain of rice from these bags.

Nigeria’s struggle with oil theft and pipeline vandalism is akin to battling a hydra—a beast whose heads multiply every time one is severed. These challenges have, for decades, sunk their fangs into the country’s economic lifeblood, draining vitality and potential. Yet, Nigeria’s plight is not an isolated one. Like a plague, the twin evils of oil theft and pipeline sabotage have infected several other nations, each grappling with its own vicious cycle of loss and recovery.
In recent years, the audacity and scale of oil theft in Nigeria have grown to monstrous proportions. What once seemed like a manageable nuisance has mutated into a crisis, revealing the state’s weakening ability to protect its most valuable resource. The unchecked plundering of Nigeria’s oil wealth is not just a gash in the country’s economy—it is a haemorrhage that threatens to bleed the nation dry. As this shadow war rages on, Nigeria’s efforts mirror the struggles of other oil-rich nations ensnared by similar challenges.

A Global Tangle: Oil Theft Across the World

Nigeria’s struggles might feel uniquely overwhelming, but the curse of oil theft has spread its tendrils far beyond its borders. Mexico battles its own demons with huachicoleo, the illegal tapping of pipelines driven by organised crime. Like thieves in the night, these criminal cartels slither through the shadows, leaving a trail of loss and environmental destruction in their wake. Mexico has attempted to cut off this serpent’s head with military crackdowns, shutting down pipelines and transporting fuel by tankers, but corruption remains the venom that weakens the system, rendering success elusive.
Meanwhile, in Venezuela, where oil is both a curse and a salvation, theft is rampant amid the ruins of an economic collapse. Like vultures circling a dying beast, smugglers and criminals pick apart what remains of the nation’s oil infrastructure. The government’s grip is weak, hobbled by political unrest and financial instability, and so the bleeding continues. Similarly, Iraq, whose oil fields stretch across conflict zones like patches of fertile land in a desert of strife, has endured years of sabotage. Militant groups prey on its vulnerabilities, siphoning off oil and wrecking infrastructure as they wage their own wars.
In Libya, the fight for oil is a tug of war, with armed groups seizing control of facilities as they scramble for dominance. Like waves crashing against a rocky shore, the Libyan government’s attempts to regain control are persistent yet often ineffective, splintered by internal divisions. Further afield in Colombia, guerrilla groups like the National Liberation Army (ELN) treat oil pipelines as battlegrounds, attacking infrastructure to fund their insurgency. The Colombian government responds with force, but the battle, like many others, rages on.
Even Russia and Indonesia, with their sprawling landscapes and vast oil reserves, find themselves ensnared by this global malaise. Criminal gangs in Russia’s remote Siberian wilderness tap pipelines with impunity, while in Indonesia, the lush forests conceal a web of illegal siphoning operations. Both nations, like others, have tried to tighten the noose with surveillance and security patrols, but corruption and the vastness of their territories make control difficult.

Nigeria’s Battle: From Crisis to Recovery

Back in Nigeria, the war on oil theft has followed a winding, tortuous path, with victories fleeting and losses monumental. During the Buhari administration, the government initially refused to continue the contract with Tompolo’s Tantita Security outfit, a move that proved disastrous. This decision was akin to abandoning a fort in the midst of an invasion. Oil theft surged, and production plummeted to a dismal 790,000 barrels per day (bpd). The nation, once a giant in the oil market, found itself limping, crippled by its own vulnerability.
But the story didn’t end there. Realising the gravity of the situation, the Buhari administration had a change of heart and re-awarded the contract to Tantita. Like a knight returning to a besieged castle, Tompolo’s team rode back into the fray, spearheading a recovery. Oil production climbed to 1.3 million bpd, marking the beginning of Nigeria’s ascent from the abyss.
This resurgence under the Mele Kyari leadership of Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPC Ltd) was further bolstered in year 2022 by a new weapon in Nigeria’s arsenal: technology. The deployment of a sophisticated Digital Intelligence Platform became the country’s eye in the sky, monitoring the labyrinthine Niger Delta region and its web of creeks where much of the illicit activity took place. The platform acted like a spider at the centre of a vast network, sensing disturbances and relaying real-time intelligence to various security agencies. Information flowed seamlessly to the Department of State Services (DSS), National Intelligence Agency (NIA), Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU), Nigerian Police Force, Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), and private security contractors like Tantita and Pipeline Infrastructure Nigeria (PIN).
With all eyes on the creeks, Nigeria’s defences grew stronger, and NNPC Ltd began to regain control of its assets. Production steadily climbed, and as of now, oil output has reached nearly 1.8 million bpd—an improvement that signals hope, though the battle is far from won.
Despite these gains, there remains an unsettling truth: much of the oil being stolen in Nigeria is still not properly documented. Like a hidden illness festering beneath the surface, the full extent of the theft is unknown. The losses are likely far greater than official figures suggest, leaving a gaping wound in the nation’s economy.

Lessons from Global Struggles

Globally, the fight against oil theft and pipeline vandalism is a protracted one. Countries facing similar challenges have tried a range of strategies, from military crackdowns and increased security patrols to advanced surveillance technology and international cooperation. However, Nigeria’s situation remains unique due to the complexity of the Niger Delta region—a tangle of waterways and jungle that provides perfect cover for illicit operations—and the sheer scale of the problem.
For instance, Mexico’s reliance on military interventions has seen limited success, hampered by corruption within the security forces themselves. In Venezuela, the government’s weakened state has left it unable to effectively combat oil theft, while Iraq and Libya struggle to protect their oil resources amid ongoing conflicts. Nigeria, by contrast, has shown that a combination of technology and local knowledge—through partnerships with former militants like Tompolo—can yield results, though sustaining these gains requires constant innovation and stronger governance.

The Road Ahead: Nigeria’s Quest for Stability

Nigeria’s oil production, like a phoenix rising from the ashes, has clawed its way back from the depths. But the journey is far from over. The federal government’s continued reliance on Tompolo’s militants and advanced surveillance technology has yielded success, yet these measures are not without controversy. The question remains: how can Nigeria ensure that this fragile recovery doesn’t unravel?
Crude oil remains the heart that pumps life into Nigeria’s economy, providing up to 80 percent of foreign exchange earnings and nearly 70 percent of the annual budget. But like any heart under constant strain, it needs care and protection. The federal government, in collaboration with state governments, must continue to tackle the issue of oil theft with a renewed sense of urgency, drawing lessons from global counterparts while refining its own approach. Failure is not an option—the stakes are simply too high.

An Economy Haemorrhaging: The Costs of Inaction

The scale of Nigeria’s losses to oil theft is staggering, yet it may be only the tip of the iceberg. National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu recently disclosed that the country loses approximately 400,000 bpd to oil theft. Former Minister of State for Petroleum Resources Timipre Sylva estimated that Nigeria lost at least 700,000 bpd to thieves in 2022 alone—a situation unparalleled by other oil-producing nations like Venezuela, Iraq, Mexico, and Malaysia. And yet, many of these stolen barrels remain undocumented, slipping through the cracks like grains of sand in an hourglass. The full scale of the problem is likely far greater than official records indicate, leaving a yawning chasm in the nation’s finances.
In October last year, the Nigerian Senate reported that the country lost N2.3 trillion to crude oil theft. But this figure, alarming as it is, is likely a conservative estimate. The shadow economy of oil theft operates in the dark, beyond the reach of formal accounting, and its impact is felt far and wide.
As Nigeria continues to bleed, the call for a decisive and comprehensive solution grows louder. If the country can regain full control of its oil resources, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPC Ltd) could potentially produce no less than 3 million (three million) barrels per day, breathing new life into the economy. Such an achievement would be nothing short of transformative, a beacon of hope in a landscape scarred by years of theft and loss. With the right mix of vigilance, innovation, and resolve, Nigeria can emerge victorious, restoring stability and prosperity to its citizens.

Lemmy Ughegbe, Ph.D. writes from Abuja
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