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IEA chief says China’s rebound is the biggest uncertainty facing oil markets

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By Azeez Mojeed Olusola

The International Energy Agency’s executive director has indicated that the biggest uncertainty facing global energy markets is the extent to which China has rebounded from its extended closure.
“China’s economy is rebounding now. How strong this advantage will be will decide the oil and gas market dynamics,” Fatih Birol told CNBC Friday.
In its latest monthly Oil Market Report published Wednesday, the energy agency said it expects global oil demand to pick up in 2023, with China accounting for a substantial portion of the projected increase.

Fatih Birol, is executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland.

The International Energy Agency’s executive director said Friday that the biggest uncertainty facing global energy markets is the extent to which China rebounded from its extended closure.

Currently, oil markets are “balanced,” Fatih Birol told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble at the Munich Security Conference. But producers are awaiting signals on forthcoming demand from the world’s second largest economy and largest crude oil importer.

“For me, the biggest answer to the energy markets in the next months to come is [from] China,” Birol said, noting a major drop-off in the country’s oil and gas demand during its pandemic lockdowns.

In its latest monthly Oil Market Report published Wednesday, the energy agency said it anticipates global oil demand will pick up in 2023, with China accounting for a substantial portion of the projected increase.

Oil deliveries are expected to rise by 1.1 million barrels a day to hit 7.2 million barrels a day over the course of 2023, with total demand reaching a record 101.9 million barrels a day, the IEA noted.

If it’s a very strong rebound, there may be a need that oil producers will increase their production.
Fatih Birol.

“China’s economy is rebounding now,” Birol noted. “How strong this advantage will be will decide the oil and gas market dynamics.”

He added, “If it’s a very strong rebound, there may be a need that oil producers will increase their production.”

The IEA chief said that OPEC+ countries, as well as other major oil producing nations such at the U.S., Brazil and Guyana, were poised to ramp up output to meet that demand, should it be needed.

Asked whether President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) — with its package of funding aimed at incentivizing clean energies — could stymy production increases in the U.S., Birol said it was unlikely.

“I think it’s beyond the government’s policies. There is huge, huge money to be made,” he said, citing recorded profits posted by global oil and gas companies in the past year.

IRA the ‘most important’ climate action since Paris 2015
Birol insisted was playing a vital role in accelerating the global clean energy transition, once again hailing it as the “single most important climate action since the Paris agreement [of] 2015.”

The IEA head said that the global energy crisis, prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, was “supercharging” the transition to clean energies.

He added that he expected other countries and regions will soon unveil similar clean energy investment packages.

“I’m sure, sooner or later, Europe will come with a similar energy package,” he said.

“We are entering a new industrial age: the age of clean energy technology manufacturing,” he remarked, citing wind, solar and nuclear energy technologies. “Those will be the key words for the next years to come.”

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Oil and gas

Nigeria’s Oil Earnings Projected to Hit N6.9 Trillion Monthly with Production Increase

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The Federal Government may see a significant rise in revenue, up to N6.99 trillion monthly, following an increase in oil production to 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.).
In collaboration with industry stakeholders, the NNPC has intensified efforts to boost crude oil output to meet the government’s production targets.
This increase is coming as the average price of Brent crude remained stable at around $81 per barrel, creating favorable conditions for substantial earnings. Calculations based on current production levels and exchange rates show that producing 1.8 million bpd at $81 per barrel could yield approximately $4.37 billion in monthly revenue, which translates to N6.99 trillion at an exchange rate of N1,600 per dollar.

NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, announced the milestone during a recent Oil Production War Room meeting at NNPC headquarters in Abuja, attended by top officials, including Petroleum Resources Minister Heineken Lokpobiri. Kyari emphasized that the increased production aligns with the Federal Government’s 2024 budget projections and long-term economic goals.

Chief Production War Room Officer Lawal Musa highlighted that the collaboration between the NNPC, security agencies, and local communities had been crucial to achieving the 1.8 million bpd level. The goal is now set to reach 2 million bpd by the end of the year, a target the NNPC is optimistic about achieving given the current momentum and security improvements in oil-producing regions.

Minister Lokpobiri commended the NNPC for achieving this production feat, describing it as a “remarkable milestone.” He expressed confidence that NNPC Ltd could not only meet but exceed the two million bpd target, further enhancing Nigeria’s revenue prospects.

The Chairman of the NNPC Board, Chief Pius Akinyelure, reinforced the board’s commitment to furthering this progress, urging the management and staff to pursue even greater achievements in the oil and gas sector. Dr. Paul Bebenimibo, spokesperson for Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited, one of the private security agencies involved, confirmed the peaceful and secure environment in the Niger Delta as key to the production surge, assuring that further measures are in place to sustain and even increase output.

The drive to reach two million bpd underscores NNPC’s dedication to stabilizing and expanding oil production, with significant implications for Nigeria’s fiscal health and overall economic stability.

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Governor Ododo Seeks Federal Collaboration to Boost Oil Exploration in Kogi State

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Usman Ododo and Heineken Lokpobiri

Kogi State Governor Ahmed Usman Ododo has called for enhanced cooperation between the state and the federal government to accelerate investment in oil exploration within Kogi State.

Governor Ododo made this appeal during a visit to Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), in Abuja on Thursday.
Special Adviser on Media to the Governor, Ismaila Isah quoted him to have reiterated his administration’s commitment to creating a favorable environment for investors, emphasizing the state’s readiness to work closely with the federal government.
He underscored the importance of fast-tracking oil exploration in Kogi in line with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s vision to expand exploration in Nigeria’s frontier basins.

Responding to the governor’s call, Senator Lokpobiri reaffirmed Kogi’s status as an oil-producing state and pledged the federal government’s commitment to attract investment to tap into the state’s vast oil resources. He highlighted the mandate of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), which tasks the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) with exploring frontier basins.
He assured that the government is ready to deploy funds for further exploration in Kogi.

Senator Lokpobiri also commended Governor Ododo for his leadership and strides in governance, noting that these efforts will be key in attracting and sustaining investment in the state.

Kogi State became the first oil-producing state in Northern Nigeria in 2022 following the federal government’s confirmation of oil discoveries in commercial quantities.

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Oil and gas

We will soon unravel shady Issues in the Petroleum Sector, Senator Kawu vows

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Sumaila Kawu

As the newly appointed chairman of the Senate Committee on Petroleum Downstream, Senator Sumaila Kawu has promised to tackle the persistent lack of transparency in Nigeria’s petroleum industry, which he likens to a “cabal.”

Kawu was appointed as chairman of the Committee following the demise of Senator Ifeanyi Uba who represented Anambra South who held sway as the chairman of the committee

Speaking to newsmen on Wednesday at the National Assembly, Kawu detailed his plans to shed light on the sector’s operations and engage the public in meaningful dialogue.

With rising fuel prices impacting Nigerians daily, Kawu emphasized the urgent need for clarity and accountability within the industry. “Our first step will be to study the current situation and gather information from relevant agencies,” he stated.
He highlighted the importance of holding public hearings, which will allow citizens to voice their concerns and experiences directly.

Kawu’s committee will focus specifically on reviewing contracts awarded by previous administrations and overseeing the current contracts for refinery repairs.
By scrutinizing the agreements, Kawu targets to expose any irregularities and ensure that funds are being used effectively.
He remarked, “We need to ask the hard questions and hold a public hearing to allow Nigerians to express their views.”

In his commitment to transparency, Kawu detailed his plans to engage with stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and refinery operators, to understand the barriers to efficient production and accountability.
According to him, the recent visits to the refineries have given course fir concerns about unmet production timelines, prompting a call for a more rigorous evaluation of the situation.

Kawu’s focus on transparency is not only about identifying issues but also about fostering a culture of openness within the sector.
He promise to use the committee to dismantle the “cabal-like” operations that have characterized the industry, ensuring that decision-making processes are accessible and understandable to the public.

Senator Kawu expressed determination to implement measures that will stabilize the petroleum sector and address the legitimate concerns of Nigerians.
By prioritizing transparency and public engagement, he expressed the hope to restore confidence in the management of Nigeria’s petroleum resources.

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